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Spike bucket

10/31/2026, 5:09:00 A.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 10/31/2026, 5:09:00 A.M. to 10/31/2026, 5:10:00 A.M.

Partially observable spike

low confidence

42% coverage

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 279.59

Unexplained QUAI: 386.17

Explained QI: 0

Unexplained QI: 1.5

Facts

Pattern: Distributed activity

Dominant transfer: 23% of explained volume

Relative context

4.5x above local average

2.4x next minute

Interpretation

This spike is partially explained by distributed visible activity.

The spike appears distributed, but some of the bucket still remains unexplained.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

31.4% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

665.76 QUAI

1.5 QI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

medium priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x006c515c33b7dd4f2A298626e3Bf931e05B480da • 0x001F0af9403592c11b9e07659dc2F740e3075C39.

Dominant behavior: mixed flow

mixed_flow + low confidence + 666 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 27

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x006c515c33b7dd4f2A298626e3Bf931e05B480da • 0x001F0af9403592c11b9e07659dc2F740e3075C39.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: low • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 16 visible transfer rows

Confidence low • Source account-shape-default

Limits: no repeated pair pattern yet • confidence remains low

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Thin source coverage

Last updated: 10/31/2026, 5:09:00 A.M.

Coverage gap high (58% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 16 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • source coverage is thin; unseen counterpart activity may be missing • observable coverage remains partial (42%) • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Actor type hint is unknown with limited confidence; keep validation broad.

What to do next

Run a broad transfer-path check before actor-specific assumptions.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (mixed flow).
Re-check identity hints before narrowing the scope.
Identity hint: Insufficient reliable identity signals; classification kept conservative.

Top actors in this event

0x006c515c33b7dd4f2A298626e3Bf931e05B480da

Net sender

Unknown type

279.59 QUAI across 16 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x001F0af9403592c11b9e07659dc2F740e3075C39

Net receiver

Unknown type

64.39 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x005398A4FE3cf7BFB016174334eb6bBe223B8E77

Net receiver

Unknown type

49.96 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0059521422C0F8fC0967393b225188483C655e15

Net receiver

Unknown type

25.2 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0045f0A51D2cFC3B573a7DCc2C14AD3C47C3f58e

Net receiver

Unknown type

20.34 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 0 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm mixed flow still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

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16 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 51. The remaining 35 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.