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Spike bucket

10/30/2026, 1:26:00 A.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 10/30/2026, 1:26:00 A.M. to 10/30/2026, 1:27:00 A.M.

Partially observable spike

medium confidence

100% coverage

Whale-driven spike detected

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 20,005.31

Unexplained QUAI: 0

Explained QI: 400

Unexplained QI: 0

Facts

Pattern: Whale-driven spike

Dominant transfer: 100% of explained volume

Relative context

2.9x above local average

1.0x next minute

Interpretation

Most of this spike is explained by one dominant transfer.

Visible rows account for most of the bucket with a clear leading transfer.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

66.7% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

20,005.31 QUAI

400 QI

Avg confidence

81.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

high priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x0040Fe2BDBb75B322BBF1E00D3Ec4548AF80a3Ab.

Dominant behavior: whale rotation

whale_rotation + medium confidence + 20005 QUAI

Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.

Importance score: 53

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x0040Fe2BDBb75B322BBF1E00D3Ec4548AF80a3Ab.

0x000414c2062B85154030c940040FA25DfED075Da -> 0x00e9784Aabe47777cD40B4933983Ae365913ff3E (2 repeated flows).

Confidence context: medium • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 4 visible transfer rows • 1 repeated counterpart flow

Confidence medium • Source account-shape-default

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Broad source coverage

Last updated: 10/30/2026, 1:26:00 A.M.

Coverage gaps appear limited

Based on: 1 related signal • 4 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).

What to do next

Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (whale rotation).
Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.

Top actors in this event

MEXC hot wallet

Balanced

Exchange

20,005.31 QUAI across 2 visible rows

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0040Fe2BDBb75B322BBF1E00D3Ec4548AF80a3Ab

Net sender

Unknown type

19,998.31 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x000414c2062B85154030c940040FA25DfED075Da

Net sender

Unknown type

403.02 QI across 2 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00e9784Aabe47777cD40B4933983Ae365913ff3E

Net receiver

Unknown type

403.02 QI across 2 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00654F93C7c253a1460B8384A35288a38b1049F5

Net receiver

Unknown type

7 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

0x000414c2062B85154030c940040FA25DfED075Da → 0x00e9784Aabe47777cD40B4933983Ae365913ff3E

2 repeated flows • 400 QI

Type concentration

To exchange: 19,998.31 QUAI

From exchange: 7 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm whale rotation still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

View investigations

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4 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 6. The remaining 2 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.