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Spike bucket

10/29/2026, 3:25:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 10/29/2026, 3:25:00 P.M. to 10/29/2026, 3:26:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

low confidence

56% coverage

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 14,307.87

Unexplained QUAI: 11,419.19

Explained QI: 300

Unexplained QI: 0

Facts

Pattern: Distributed activity

Dominant transfer: 8% of explained volume

Relative context

0.5x above local average

0.7x previous minute

2.3x next minute

Interpretation

This spike is partially explained by distributed visible activity.

The spike appears distributed, but some of the bucket still remains unexplained.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

78.9% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

25,727.06 QUAI

300 QI

Avg confidence

64.5%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

medium priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x007e2F1a4709B812F339f22E18032118FBcc8987 • 0x0031cf033969B807e0e08CaB89dc2c4c29Bec97d.

Dominant behavior: mixed flow

mixed_flow + low confidence + 25727 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 32

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x007e2F1a4709B812F339f22E18032118FBcc8987 • 0x0031cf033969B807e0e08CaB89dc2c4c29Bec97d.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: low • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 15 visible transfer rows

Confidence low • Source account-shape-default

Limits: no repeated pair pattern yet • confidence remains low

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Partial source coverage

Last updated: 10/29/2026, 3:25:00 P.M.

Coverage gap moderate (44% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 15 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • observable coverage remains partial (56%) • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).

What to do next

Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (mixed flow).
Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.

Top actors in this event

Gate.io hot wallet

Net receiver

Exchange

14,307.87 QUAI across 14 visible rows

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0031cf033969B807e0e08CaB89dc2c4c29Bec97d

Net sender

Unknown type

1,129.59 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0000b63F3E349Da2F7A30048A452f8A4278673D9

Net sender

Unknown type

1,118.79 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x005269C76ae8d0d053f83eba4836e52c2155A653

Net sender

Unknown type

1,110.71 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0015504aaed877285b5b28F1A66b6A9e9C0d27af

Net sender

Unknown type

1,083.73 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 14,307.87 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm mixed flow still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

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15 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 19. The remaining 4 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.