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Spike bucket

10/27/2026, 1:29:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 10/27/2026, 1:29:00 P.M. to 10/27/2026, 1:30:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

medium confidence

85% coverage

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 735.01

Unexplained QUAI: 128.24

Facts

Pattern: Mixed spike

Dominant transfer: 51% of explained volume

Relative context

0.4x above local average

0.7x previous minute

3.2x next minute

Interpretation

This spike is partially explained by multiple visible transfers.

One transfer stands out, but supporting activity also contributes materially.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

83.3% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

863.25 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

high priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x0020EaAFcF03Ebe3f318ec381Ed720a0e8c49962 • 0x002B82df58465723EB2b1a4045C5234f88100008.

Dominant behavior: distribution

distribution + medium confidence + 863 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 45

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x0020EaAFcF03Ebe3f318ec381Ed720a0e8c49962 • 0x002B82df58465723EB2b1a4045C5234f88100008.

0x0020EaAFcF03Ebe3f318ec381Ed720a0e8c49962 -> 0x007087CfF4E3CF0E2F4a1C11094d983f97C12261 (2 repeated flows).

Confidence context: medium • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 5 visible transfer rows • 1 repeated counterpart flow

Confidence medium • Source account-shape-default

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Broad source coverage

Last updated: 10/27/2026, 1:29:00 P.M.

Coverage gaps appear limited

Based on: 1 related signal • 5 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Actor type hint is unknown with limited confidence; keep validation broad.

What to do next

Run a broad transfer-path check before actor-specific assumptions.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (distribution).
Re-check identity hints before narrowing the scope.
Identity hint: Insufficient reliable identity signals; classification kept conservative.

Top actors in this event

0x0020EaAFcF03Ebe3f318ec381Ed720a0e8c49962

Net sender

Unknown type

735.01 QUAI across 5 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x002B82df58465723EB2b1a4045C5234f88100008

Net receiver

Unknown type

375 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00165Bc5F973717dBb3FA7090A490ba85C7EDd16

Net receiver

Unknown type

140.63 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x007087CfF4E3CF0E2F4a1C11094d983f97C12261

Net receiver

Unknown type

125.63 QUAI across 2 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x007f01452eA03280963351560323D6DfddcAA9e7

Net receiver

Unknown type

93.75 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

0x0020EaAFcF03Ebe3f318ec381Ed720a0e8c49962 → 0x007087CfF4E3CF0E2F4a1C11094d983f97C12261

2 repeated flows • 125.63 QUAI

Type concentration

To exchange: 0 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm distribution still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

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5 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 6. The remaining 1 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.