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Spike bucket

10/24/2026, 2:12:00 A.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 10/24/2026, 2:12:00 A.M. to 10/24/2026, 2:13:00 A.M.

Partially observable spike

low confidence

35% coverage

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 2,667.4

Unexplained QUAI: 5,033.04

Facts

Pattern: Mixed spike

Dominant transfer: 56% of explained volume

Relative context

0.6x above local average

0.5x previous minute

1.0x next minute

Interpretation

This spike is partially explained by multiple visible transfers.

One transfer stands out, but supporting activity also contributes materially.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

38.5% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

7,700.45 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

medium priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x0033A4774088d0389D6068d4de12DCB0a7103752 • 0x0015aa85A936226ec7Ec4224f8Ca4A9639708DBE.

Dominant behavior: distribution

distribution + low confidence + 7700 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 37

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x0033A4774088d0389D6068d4de12DCB0a7103752 • 0x0015aa85A936226ec7Ec4224f8Ca4A9639708DBE.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: low • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 5 visible transfer rows

Confidence low • Source account-shape-default

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet • confidence remains low

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Thin source coverage

Last updated: 10/24/2026, 2:12:00 A.M.

Coverage gap high (65% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 5 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • source coverage is thin; unseen counterpart activity may be missing • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • observable coverage remains partial (35%) • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Actor type hint is unknown with limited confidence; keep validation broad.

What to do next

Run a broad transfer-path check before actor-specific assumptions.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (distribution).
Re-check identity hints before narrowing the scope.
Identity hint: Insufficient reliable identity signals; classification kept conservative.

Top actors in this event

0x0033A4774088d0389D6068d4de12DCB0a7103752

Net sender

Unknown type

1,871.54 QUAI across 2 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0015aa85A936226ec7Ec4224f8Ca4A9639708DBE

Net receiver

Unknown type

1,507.03 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00796637A22A9f4Eca22DB25aE3e170b07A7aA6F

Net sender

Unknown type

774.04 QUAI across 2 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x000e8704A804059C06b693799e1b8cee7DA78161

Net receiver

Unknown type

573.14 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0015D7708aB67E1a895AD5b303FFEEd37CbA8428

Net receiver

Unknown type

364.51 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 0 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm distribution still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

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5 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 13. The remaining 8 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.