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Spike bucket

10/23/2026, 3:23:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 10/23/2026, 3:23:00 P.M. to 10/23/2026, 3:24:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

medium confidence

65% coverage

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 37,234.54

Unexplained QUAI: 19,731.01

Explained QI: 889.62

Unexplained QI: 0

Facts

Pattern: Distributed activity

Dominant transfer: 10% of explained volume

Relative context

0.4x above local average

0.1x previous minute

1.4x next minute

Interpretation

This spike is partially explained by distributed visible activity.

The spike appears distributed, but some of the bucket still remains unexplained.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

82.4% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

56,965.55 QUAI

889.62 QI

Avg confidence

66.3%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

medium priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x007e2F1a4709B812F339f22E18032118FBcc8987 • 0x001Ca6E57B29399995673dEa29ecCCa67FA006eB.

Dominant behavior: mixed flow

mixed_flow + medium confidence + 56966 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 40

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x007e2F1a4709B812F339f22E18032118FBcc8987 • 0x001Ca6E57B29399995673dEa29ecCCa67FA006eB.

0x0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 -> 0x006ef231e9EDa08dFDAb9e3E964CD3e9e86684c2 (2 repeated flows).

Confidence context: medium • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 14 visible transfer rows • 1 repeated counterpart flow

Confidence medium • Source account-shape-default

Limits: no major confidence limiter detected in current sample

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Partial source coverage

Last updated: 10/23/2026, 3:23:00 P.M.

Coverage gap moderate (35% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 14 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).

What to do next

Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (mixed flow).
Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.

Top actors in this event

Gate.io hot wallet

Net receiver

Exchange

37,234.54 QUAI across 12 visible rows

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x001Ca6E57B29399995673dEa29ecCCa67FA006eB

Net sender

Unknown type

3,769.25 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00272A3B1850ce2E56DF955b2041FABfCAF3F117

Net sender

Unknown type

3,633.03 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0052178a5A0403Cf2F9cbd07AC4267b87403BC51

Net sender

Unknown type

3,517.8 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x002cC3925959f2F413875F35a3C1CF2151e75C81

Net sender

Unknown type

3,505.2 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

0x0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 → 0x006ef231e9EDa08dFDAb9e3E964CD3e9e86684c2

2 repeated flows • 889.62 QI

Type concentration

To exchange: 37,234.54 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm mixed flow still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

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-15 min -5 min -1 min +1 min +5 min +15 min Raw alerts API

14 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 17. The remaining 3 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.