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Spike bucket

09/22/2026, 2:30:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 09/22/2026, 2:30:00 P.M. to 09/22/2026, 2:31:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

low confidence

18% coverage

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 205.08

Unexplained QUAI: 963.67

Facts

Pattern: Mixed spike

Dominant transfer: 63% of explained volume

Relative context

3.0x above local average

5.7x next minute

Interpretation

This spike is partially explained by multiple visible transfers.

One transfer stands out, but supporting activity also contributes materially.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

38.5% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

1,168.75 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

medium priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x0049948d5fBf40B06E6965543eB2620476e82a3e • 0x002b6c6BD946D78307824A7a73DF2207d6B9928e.

Dominant behavior: distribution

distribution + low confidence + 1169 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 37

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x0049948d5fBf40B06E6965543eB2620476e82a3e • 0x002b6c6BD946D78307824A7a73DF2207d6B9928e.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: low • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 5 visible transfer rows

Confidence low • Source account-shape-default

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet • confidence remains low

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Thin source coverage

Last updated: 09/22/2026, 2:30:00 P.M.

Coverage gap high (82% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 5 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • source coverage is thin; unseen counterpart activity may be missing • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • observable coverage remains partial (18%) • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Actor type hint is unknown with limited confidence; keep validation broad.

What to do next

Run a broad transfer-path check before actor-specific assumptions.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (distribution).
Re-check identity hints before narrowing the scope.
Identity hint: Insufficient reliable identity signals; classification kept conservative.

Top actors in this event

0x0049948d5fBf40B06E6965543eB2620476e82a3e

Net sender

Unknown type

128.81 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x002b6c6BD946D78307824A7a73DF2207d6B9928e

Net receiver

Unknown type

128.81 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x001D6024eadCc759ec8d61E5411918E336A24519

Net receiver

Unknown type

51.6 QUAI across 3 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00231A7719a6fCA71b675eb8a7dF3da4356E0785

Net sender

Unknown type

33.94 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x002521D801561CcC0dCBf08d49EcC10bBc7d0a81

Net sender

Unknown type

24.66 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 0 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm distribution still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

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5 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 13. The remaining 8 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.