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Spike bucket

09/22/2026, 10:47:00 A.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 09/22/2026, 10:47:00 A.M. to 09/22/2026, 10:48:00 A.M.

Partially observable spike

low confidence

60% coverage

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 39,432.14

Unexplained QUAI: 26,392.99

Facts

Pattern: Mixed spike

Dominant transfer: 51% of explained volume

Relative context

4.0x above local average

27x previous minute

1.0x next minute

Largest nearby bucket

Interpretation

This spike is partially explained by multiple visible transfers.

One transfer stands out, but supporting activity also contributes materially.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

74.2% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

65,825.13 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

medium priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x0040Fe2BDBb75B322BBF1E00D3Ec4548AF80a3Ab.

Dominant behavior: distribution

distribution + low confidence + 65825 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 42

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x0040Fe2BDBb75B322BBF1E00D3Ec4548AF80a3Ab.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: low • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 23 visible transfer rows

Confidence low • Source account-shape-default

Limits: no repeated pair pattern yet • confidence remains low

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Partial source coverage

Last updated: 09/22/2026, 10:47:00 A.M.

Coverage gap moderate (40% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 23 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • observable coverage remains partial (60%) • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).

What to do next

Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (distribution).
Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.

Top actors in this event

MEXC hot wallet

Net receiver

Exchange

36,369.54 QUAI across 15 visible rows

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0040Fe2BDBb75B322BBF1E00D3Ec4548AF80a3Ab

Net sender

Unknown type

19,998.4 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x002b6c6BD946D78307824A7a73DF2207d6B9928e

Net receiver

Unknown type

3,062.6 QUAI across 8 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x002C2482ee5AC230d362afde3556cF475cCc2ca9

Net sender

Unknown type

1,928.1 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0006382f4363FDa915FEe33C088A8D62A3313fd9

Net sender

Unknown type

1,925.22 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 36,369.54 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm distribution still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

View investigations

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23 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 31. The remaining 8 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.