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Spike bucket

09/22/2026, 3:21:00 A.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 09/22/2026, 3:21:00 A.M. to 09/22/2026, 3:22:00 A.M.

Partially observable spike

low confidence

39% coverage

Whale-driven spike detected

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 15,530.34

Unexplained QUAI: 23,836.81

Facts

Pattern: Whale-driven spike

Dominant transfer: 85% of explained volume

Relative context

2.0x above local average

1.2x previous minute

1.0x next minute

Interpretation

Most of this spike is explained by one dominant transfer.

A single transfer leads the visible activity, but some of the bucket remains unexplained.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

83.3% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

39,367.15 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

high priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x003b9aDC47853F64Dee2174861DE67c57bB872DB.

Dominant behavior: whale rotation

whale_rotation + low confidence + 39367 QUAI

Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.

Importance score: 50

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x003b9aDC47853F64Dee2174861DE67c57bB872DB.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: low • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 5 visible transfer rows

Confidence low • Source account-shape-default

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet • confidence remains low

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Thin source coverage

Last updated: 09/22/2026, 3:21:00 A.M.

Coverage gap high (61% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 5 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • source coverage is thin; unseen counterpart activity may be missing • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • observable coverage remains partial (39%) • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).

What to do next

Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (whale rotation).
Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.

Top actors in this event

MEXC hot wallet

Net sender

Exchange

13,263.41 QUAI across 1 visible row

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x003b9aDC47853F64Dee2174861DE67c57bB872DB

Net receiver

Unknown type

13,263.41 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x001D6024eadCc759ec8d61E5411918E336A24519

Net receiver

Unknown type

2,266.93 QUAI across 4 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0060bA5516E993449827998B966326d53DF3BA4D

Net sender

Unknown type

977.63 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x005CDA9Ffe6321216a0451A519cdc79CD441b521

Net sender

Unknown type

637.6 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 0 QUAI

From exchange: 13,263.41 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm whale rotation still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

View investigations

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5 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 6. The remaining 1 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.