Spike bucket
09/21/2026, 11:38:00 P.M.
Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.
Window: 09/21/2026, 11:38:00 P.M. to 09/21/2026, 11:39:00 P.M.
Fully observable spike
high confidence
100% coverage
High-confidence spike
Coverage
Explained QUAI: 24,986.65
Unexplained QUAI: 0
Facts
Pattern: Mixed spike
Dominant transfer: 58% of explained volume
Relative context
2.1x above local average
6.6x previous minute
1.0x next minute
Interpretation
This spike is explained by a mix of visible transfers, with one stronger contributor.
One transfer stands out, but supporting activity also contributes materially.
Shard
Cyprus-1
Bucket tx
11
Observable rows
11
100.0% of bucket activity rendered as rows
Unique addresses
23
Asset volume
24,986.65 QUAI
Avg confidence
62.0%
Dominant source: account-shape-default
Event intelligence
high priorityWhat happened
Top actor concentration: 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x003e6d9CaF8bB49fa74608906D805fE54e9B20BA.
Dominant behavior: distribution
distribution + high confidence + 24987 QUAI
This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.
Importance score: 55
Why this spike matters now
Top actor concentration around 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x003e6d9CaF8bB49fa74608906D805fE54e9B20BA.
0x00457027CBa75C32e0B0De7500fB86AA6608666c -> 0x0018a19a9eB4fbbaEF7affC95bB86D1529B6899c (3 repeated flows).
Confidence context: high • Source context: account-shape-default
Evidence & confidence
Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available
Based on: 1 related signal • 11 visible transfer rows • 2 repeated counterpart flows
Confidence high • Source account-shape-default
Limits: no major confidence limiter detected in current sample
Data provenance & freshness
Source health: limited • High freshness drift
Stale context window • Broad source coverage
Last updated: 09/21/2026, 11:38:00 P.M.
Coverage gaps appear limited
Based on: 1 related signal • 11 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window
Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.
Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.
Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window
Why now
Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).
What to do next
Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.
What to verify
- Confirm behavior (distribution).
- Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
- Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.
Top actors in this event
MEXC hot wallet
Net receiver
Exchange
21,786.27 QUAI across 5 visible rows
Known watch context
0x003e6d9CaF8bB49fa74608906D805fE54e9B20BA
Net sender
Unknown type
14,435.96 QUAI across 1 visible row
0x0004e31f55d13e714cE808D20608a8545344D19F
Net sender
Unknown type
4,999.22 QUAI across 1 visible row
0x00457027CBa75C32e0B0De7500fB86AA6608666c
Net sender
Unknown type
2,822.52 QUAI across 5 visible rows
0x002C67943dc843c1120de306cf0946B2B0490D07
Net sender
Unknown type
1,905.28 QUAI across 1 visible row
Relationship intelligence
Repeated flow pairs
0x00457027CBa75C32e0B0De7500fB86AA6608666c → 0x0018a19a9eB4fbbaEF7affC95bB86D1529B6899c
3 repeated flows • 1,690.01 QUAI
0x00457027CBa75C32e0B0De7500fB86AA6608666c → 0x002c9e7177eBdF94986A46fdB13Dd59145eDB5b2
2 repeated flows • 1,132.5 QUAI
Type concentration
To exchange: 21,786.27 QUAI
From exchange: 0 QUAI
Whale to whale: 0 QUAI
Evidence checks
Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.
- Confirm distribution still matches latest flow.
- Recheck context: Fully observable spike • Cyprus-1.
- Review latest signal or spike before changing status.
Autonomous outcome
Read-only canonical source
Cyprus-1 spike
This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.
Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.
View investigationsNearby active minutes
Use these when the signal spills into adjacent minutes
Selected minute
Best candidate8 tx
31,779.78 QUAI • 24 addresses
09/21/2026, 11:37:43 P.M.
-1 min
6 tx
3,763.73 QUAI • 16 addresses
09/21/2026, 11:36:31 P.M.
+1 min
11 tx
24,986.65 QUAI • 23 addresses
09/21/2026, 11:38:56 P.M.
+2 min
1 tx
566.25 QUAI • 13 addresses
09/21/2026, 11:40:08 P.M.
-3 min
3 tx
7,206.67 QUAI • 18 addresses
09/21/2026, 11:35:19 P.M.
+3 min
5 tx
7,474.16 QUAI • 21 addresses
09/21/2026, 11:41:20 P.M.
-4 min
12 tx
12,603.27 QUAI • 26 addresses
09/21/2026, 11:34:07 P.M.
-5 min
4 tx
7,224.23 QUAI • 14 addresses
09/21/2026, 11:32:54 P.M.
Biggest whale alert
14,435.96 QUAI
Whale alertAccount Shape Default62.0% confidenceInflow to whale
Cyprus-1
09/21/2026, 11:38:33 P.M.
QUAI whale transfer detected on Cyprus-1
From: 0x003e6d9CaF8bB49fa74608906D805fE54e9B20BA
To: MEXC hot wallet
0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a
Exchange
All transfers in this selected minute
11 transactions
377.87 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/21/2026, 11:38:50 P.M.
From: 0x004F34eFEd1BF1234A801D410dEC6ee53C574f4e
To: 0x0039D1b1275C2329e3C54164f52674936FCB8A40
Tx: 0x003000640338e0efbbe65deaf9a6e931b9d51dbceb20c517a374681037746488
566.89 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/21/2026, 11:38:50 P.M.
From: 0x00457027CBa75C32e0B0De7500fB86AA6608666c
To: 0x0018a19a9eB4fbbaEF7affC95bB86D1529B6899c
Tx: 0x00240012bbcfcf6795f4ff61a3a8a70de9ebfb6989886c70c998697694d0abec
566.25 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/21/2026, 11:38:50 P.M.
From: 0x00457027CBa75C32e0B0De7500fB86AA6608666c
To: 0x002c9e7177eBdF94986A46fdB13Dd59145eDB5b2
Tx: 0x001f0079a0ae92cab4612de9493ca237db439e72a800f3639561b3cd90966e85
4,999.22 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidenceInflow to whale
Cyprus-1
09/21/2026, 11:38:33 P.M.
From: 0x0004e31f55d13e714cE808D20608a8545344D19F
To: MEXC hot wallet
0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a
Exchange
Tx: 0x000d0051da58ebb218189ad5433c71bbceda09351298a6270831c69bcf1c49f6
208.62 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidenceInflow to whale
Cyprus-1
09/21/2026, 11:38:33 P.M.
From: 0x0002C927952814a83f769805E0ac347879e5f760
To: MEXC hot wallet
0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a
Exchange
Tx: 0x006e0049a1312b2d977b67ac848e19b1f7c81187359a4cbf4de9b36122798ee2
1,905.28 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidenceInflow to whale
Cyprus-1
09/21/2026, 11:38:33 P.M.
From: 0x002C67943dc843c1120de306cf0946B2B0490D07
To: MEXC hot wallet
0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a
Exchange
Tx: 0x0042001376dd0c86a6f662418f085e4a603cf67ad9e4aa5161e80fb5b3ab658a
237.18 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidenceInflow to whale
Cyprus-1
09/21/2026, 11:38:33 P.M.
From: 0x00509B7D0FF19eb42eCa5FCFF12fD3566b93eE7F
To: MEXC hot wallet
0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a
Exchange
Tx: 0x007300455fd79929ba476fbc6be51bd1f3800c4c1e9f14dbae0adbdb5ccf64a3
14,435.96 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidenceInflow to whale
Cyprus-1
09/21/2026, 11:38:33 P.M.
From: 0x003e6d9CaF8bB49fa74608906D805fE54e9B20BA
To: MEXC hot wallet
0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a
Exchange
Tx: 0x00660025445df153ad736102b204bccffb88757eea05a3c1985a829ece0b976a
568.18 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/21/2026, 11:38:16 P.M.
From: 0x00457027CBa75C32e0B0De7500fB86AA6608666c
To: 0x0018a19a9eB4fbbaEF7affC95bB86D1529B6899c
Tx: 0x005f006ce54c657237a380d2f1642dc6a8beb1407c8dce13e1a589ff9fb8cbd9
566.25 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/21/2026, 11:38:07 P.M.
From: 0x00457027CBa75C32e0B0De7500fB86AA6608666c
To: 0x002c9e7177eBdF94986A46fdB13Dd59145eDB5b2
Tx: 0x0071001a358ce87781de5424ea799e2ee4ae0ec41e8dc82575dea43e8d4fdfc4
554.94 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/21/2026, 11:38:07 P.M.
From: 0x00457027CBa75C32e0B0De7500fB86AA6608666c
To: 0x0018a19a9eB4fbbaEF7affC95bB86D1529B6899c
Tx: 0x00250062f37b21c35a4e8b2e5dcf7ceb10592f0ba3f5ef218621c423852f68ab
