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Spike bucket

09/21/2026, 11:19:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 09/21/2026, 11:19:00 P.M. to 09/21/2026, 11:20:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

medium confidence

81% coverage

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 2,568.11

Unexplained QUAI: 606.54

Facts

Pattern: Distributed activity

Dominant transfer: 22% of explained volume

Relative context

0.7x above local average

1.0x next minute

Interpretation

Visible rows explain most of the spike, with no single transfer dominating.

The spike appears distributed, but some of the bucket still remains unexplained.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

75.0% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

3,174.65 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

medium priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x00457027CBa75C32e0B0De7500fB86AA6608666c • 0x0039D1b1275C2329e3C54164f52674936FCB8A40.

Dominant behavior: mixed flow

mixed_flow + medium confidence + 3175 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 35

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x00457027CBa75C32e0B0De7500fB86AA6608666c • 0x0039D1b1275C2329e3C54164f52674936FCB8A40.

0x00457027CBa75C32e0B0De7500fB86AA6608666c -> 0x005dA392F8b1cAFce10Af27761Cb1fC9DA1A1b77 (2 repeated flows).

Confidence context: medium • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 6 visible transfer rows • 1 repeated counterpart flow

Confidence medium • Source account-shape-default

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Broad source coverage

Last updated: 09/21/2026, 11:19:00 P.M.

Coverage gaps appear limited

Based on: 1 related signal • 6 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Actor type hint is unknown with limited confidence; keep validation broad.

What to do next

Run a broad transfer-path check before actor-specific assumptions.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (mixed flow).
Re-check identity hints before narrowing the scope.
Identity hint: Insufficient reliable identity signals; classification kept conservative.

Top actors in this event

0x00457027CBa75C32e0B0De7500fB86AA6608666c

Net sender

Unknown type

1,558.66 QUAI across 3 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0039D1b1275C2329e3C54164f52674936FCB8A40

Net receiver

Unknown type

1,009.45 QUAI across 3 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x005dA392F8b1cAFce10Af27761Cb1fC9DA1A1b77

Net receiver

Unknown type

993.05 QUAI across 2 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0057c29C746235873b2F8936E7f9ff0580239844

Net receiver

Unknown type

565.61 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0032931A2bf3C5e97fba0886Ac9E17B005808b3B

Net sender

Unknown type

417.96 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

0x00457027CBa75C32e0B0De7500fB86AA6608666c → 0x005dA392F8b1cAFce10Af27761Cb1fC9DA1A1b77

2 repeated flows • 993.05 QUAI

Type concentration

To exchange: 0 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm mixed flow still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

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6 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 8. The remaining 2 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.