Spike bucket
09/21/2026, 4:00:00 A.M.
Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.
Window: 09/21/2026, 4:00:00 A.M. to 09/21/2026, 4:01:00 A.M.
Partially observable spike
low confidence
19% coverage
Whale-driven spike detected
Coverage
Explained QUAI: 18.96
Unexplained QUAI: 82.53
Facts
Pattern: Whale-driven spike
Dominant transfer: 99% of explained volume
Relative context
0.5x above local average
1.3x previous minute
1.0x next minute
Interpretation
Most of this spike is explained by one dominant transfer.
A single transfer leads the visible activity, but some of the bucket remains unexplained.
Shard
Cyprus-1
Bucket tx
4
Observable rows
2
50.0% of bucket activity rendered as rows
Unique addresses
18
Asset volume
101.49 QUAI
Avg confidence
62.0%
Dominant source: account-shape-default
Event intelligence
high priorityWhat happened
Top actor concentration: 0x001c039f068f7EE0A76fd8A089493c6A2bced7FD • 0x002b6c6BD946D78307824A7a73DF2207d6B9928e.
Dominant behavior: whale rotation
whale_rotation + low confidence + 101 QUAI
Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.
Importance score: 45
Why this spike matters now
Top actor concentration around 0x001c039f068f7EE0A76fd8A089493c6A2bced7FD • 0x002b6c6BD946D78307824A7a73DF2207d6B9928e.
No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.
Confidence context: low • Source context: account-shape-default
Evidence & confidence
Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available
Based on: 1 related signal • 2 visible transfer rows
Confidence low • Source account-shape-default
Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet • confidence remains low
Data provenance & freshness
Source health: limited • High freshness drift
Stale context window • Thin source coverage
Last updated: 09/21/2026, 4:00:00 A.M.
Coverage gap high (81% not covered)
Based on: 1 related signal • 2 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window
Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.
Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.
Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • source coverage is thin; unseen counterpart activity may be missing • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • observable coverage remains partial (19%) • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window
Why now
Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Actor type hint is unknown with limited confidence; keep validation broad.
What to do next
Run a broad transfer-path check before actor-specific assumptions.
What to verify
- Confirm behavior (whale rotation).
- Re-check identity hints before narrowing the scope.
- Identity hint: Insufficient reliable identity signals; classification kept conservative.
Top actors in this event
0x001c039f068f7EE0A76fd8A089493c6A2bced7FD
Net sender
Unknown type
18.86 QUAI across 1 visible row
0x002b6c6BD946D78307824A7a73DF2207d6B9928e
Net receiver
Unknown type
18.86 QUAI across 1 visible row
0x004e272a0608F1e721A7C363B5A68c2ab33f86F9
Net sender
Unknown type
0.1 QUAI across 1 visible row
StratumX miner
Net receiver
Miner wallet
0.1 QUAI across 1 visible row
Known watch context
Relationship intelligence
Repeated flow pairs
No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.
Type concentration
To exchange: 0 QUAI
From exchange: 0 QUAI
Whale to whale: 0 QUAI
Evidence checks
Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.
- Confirm whale rotation still matches latest flow.
- Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
- Review latest signal or spike before changing status.
Autonomous outcome
Read-only canonical source
Cyprus-1 spike
Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.
Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.
View investigationsNearby active minutes
Use these when the signal spills into adjacent minutes
Selected minute
4 tx
366.41 QUAI • 20 addresses
09/21/2026, 3:59:36 A.M.
+1 min
4 tx
101.49 QUAI • 18 addresses
09/21/2026, 4:00:47 A.M.
-2 min
2 tx
77.05 QUAI • 12 addresses
09/21/2026, 3:58:19 A.M.
+2 min
0 tx
0 QUAI • 11 addresses
09/21/2026, 4:01:58 A.M.
-3 min
5 tx
334.6 QUAI • 18 addresses
09/21/2026, 3:57:08 A.M.
+3 min
Best candidate7 tx
776.17 QUAI • 25 addresses
09/21/2026, 4:03:10 A.M.
-4 min
0 tx
0 QUAI • 15 addresses
09/21/2026, 3:55:56 A.M.
+4 min
0 tx
0 QUAI • 11 addresses
09/21/2026, 4:04:22 A.M.
Biggest whale alert
18.86 QUAI
Derived whale alertPrimary driver of this spikeAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/21/2026, 4:00:37 A.M.
QUAI transfer observed on Cyprus-1
Derived from the largest observable transfer in this minute because no persisted whale-alert row was found yet.
From: 0x001c039f068f7EE0A76fd8A089493c6A2bced7FD
To: 0x002b6c6BD946D78307824A7a73DF2207d6B9928e
All transfers in this selected minute
2 transactions
18.86 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/21/2026, 4:00:37 A.M.
From: 0x001c039f068f7EE0A76fd8A089493c6A2bced7FD
To: 0x002b6c6BD946D78307824A7a73DF2207d6B9928e
Tx: 0x007c00780c3dbf1bf302a6217e10437cd5952b4acdfe783e391508f4d2c561cf
0.1 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/21/2026, 4:00:37 A.M.
From: 0x004e272a0608F1e721A7C363B5A68c2ab33f86F9
To: StratumX miner
0x00215254D1dDdd5D90671bA981688197A2735c1f
Miner wallet
Tx: 0x0056007f233008786c443a1627e461bdde902ea39b2392d099325b9f86285495