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Spike bucket

09/20/2026, 9:10:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 09/20/2026, 9:10:00 P.M. to 09/20/2026, 9:11:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

medium confidence

92% coverage

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 750.22

Unexplained QUAI: 61.09

Facts

Pattern: Distributed activity

Dominant transfer: 24% of explained volume

Relative context

1.3x above local average

1.8x previous minute

1.0x next minute

Interpretation

Visible rows explain most of the spike, with no single transfer dominating.

The spike appears distributed, but some of the bucket still remains unexplained.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

71.4% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

811.31 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

medium priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x006c515c33b7dd4f2A298626e3Bf931e05B480da • 0x0059521422C0F8fC0967393b225188483C655e15.

Dominant behavior: mixed flow

mixed_flow + medium confidence + 811 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 35

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x006c515c33b7dd4f2A298626e3Bf931e05B480da • 0x0059521422C0F8fC0967393b225188483C655e15.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: medium • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 15 visible transfer rows

Confidence medium • Source account-shape-default

Limits: no repeated pair pattern yet

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Broad source coverage

Last updated: 09/20/2026, 9:10:00 P.M.

Coverage gaps appear limited

Based on: 1 related signal • 15 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Actor type hint is unknown with limited confidence; keep validation broad.

What to do next

Run a broad transfer-path check before actor-specific assumptions.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (mixed flow).
Re-check identity hints before narrowing the scope.
Identity hint: Insufficient reliable identity signals; classification kept conservative.

Top actors in this event

0x006c515c33b7dd4f2A298626e3Bf931e05B480da

Net sender

Unknown type

609.68 QUAI across 13 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0059521422C0F8fC0967393b225188483C655e15

Net receiver

Unknown type

180.31 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x001F0af9403592c11b9e07659dc2F740e3075C39

Net receiver

Unknown type

167.46 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0001ec798D9186b010De72732d4Cf04E594D9d52

Net receiver

Unknown type

119.87 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x005679FC95ee7eA46D81D91eE6c59A9344a4AC11

Net sender

Unknown type

101.52 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 0 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm mixed flow still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

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-15 min -5 min -1 min +1 min +5 min +15 min Raw alerts API

15 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 21. The remaining 6 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.