Spike bucket
09/20/2026, 4:05:00 P.M.
Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.
Window: 09/20/2026, 4:05:00 P.M. to 09/20/2026, 4:06:00 P.M.
Partially observable spike
low confidence
49% coverage
Coverage
Explained QUAI: 140.12
Unexplained QUAI: 143.21
Facts
Pattern: Distributed activity
Dominant transfer: 35% of explained volume
Relative context
0.2x above local average
1.3x previous minute
1.0x next minute
Interpretation
This spike is partially explained by distributed visible activity.
The spike appears distributed, but some of the bucket still remains unexplained.
Shard
Cyprus-1
Bucket tx
6
Observable rows
4
66.7% of bucket activity rendered as rows
Unique addresses
29
Asset volume
283.33 QUAI
Avg confidence
62.0%
Dominant source: account-shape-default
Event intelligence
medium priorityWhat happened
Top actor concentration: 0x002b6c6BD946D78307824A7a73DF2207d6B9928e • 0x0053E63531C129f8678803beEb62546dF2fAD31d.
Dominant behavior: mixed flow
mixed_flow + low confidence + 283 QUAI
This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.
Importance score: 27
Why this spike matters now
Top actor concentration around 0x002b6c6BD946D78307824A7a73DF2207d6B9928e • 0x0053E63531C129f8678803beEb62546dF2fAD31d.
No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.
Confidence context: low • Source context: account-shape-default
Evidence & confidence
Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available
Based on: 1 related signal • 4 visible transfer rows
Confidence low • Source account-shape-default
Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet • confidence remains low
Data provenance & freshness
Source health: limited • High freshness drift
Stale context window • Thin source coverage
Last updated: 09/20/2026, 4:05:00 P.M.
Coverage gap high (51% not covered)
Based on: 1 related signal • 4 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window
Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.
Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.
Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • source coverage is thin; unseen counterpart activity may be missing • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • observable coverage remains partial (49%) • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window
Why now
Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Actor type hint is unknown with limited confidence; keep validation broad.
What to do next
Run a broad transfer-path check before actor-specific assumptions.
What to verify
- Confirm behavior (mixed flow).
- Re-check identity hints before narrowing the scope.
- Identity hint: Insufficient reliable identity signals; classification kept conservative.
Top actors in this event
0x002b6c6BD946D78307824A7a73DF2207d6B9928e
Net receiver
Unknown type
71.84 QUAI across 2 visible rows
0x0053E63531C129f8678803beEb62546dF2fAD31d
Net sender
Unknown type
48.43 QUAI across 1 visible row
0x006432Ea8c46cBF981f6e710d2439C941CeBe2d0
Net receiver
Unknown type
48.43 QUAI across 1 visible row
0x001c039f068f7EE0A76fd8A089493c6A2bced7FD
Net sender
Unknown type
36.27 QUAI across 1 visible row
0x002921A58F4b88B5B6782B8b369120393Ef27b26
Net sender
Unknown type
35.57 QUAI across 1 visible row
Relationship intelligence
Repeated flow pairs
No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.
Type concentration
To exchange: 0 QUAI
From exchange: 0 QUAI
Whale to whale: 0 QUAI
Evidence checks
Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.
- Confirm mixed flow still matches latest flow.
- Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
- Review latest signal or spike before changing status.
Autonomous outcome
Read-only canonical source
Cyprus-1 spike
This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.
Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.
View investigationsNearby active minutes
Use these when the signal spills into adjacent minutes
Selected minute
1 tx
56.34 QUAI • 15 addresses
09/20/2026, 4:04:31 P.M.
+1 min
6 tx
283.33 QUAI • 29 addresses
09/20/2026, 4:05:43 P.M.
-2 min
3 tx
214.87 QUAI • 17 addresses
09/20/2026, 4:03:20 P.M.
+2 min
52 tx
590.64 QUAI • 65 addresses
09/20/2026, 4:06:55 P.M.
-3 min
2 tx
226.89 QUAI • 14 addresses
09/20/2026, 4:02:08 P.M.
+3 min
2 tx
101.27 QUAI • 15 addresses
09/20/2026, 4:08:07 P.M.
-4 min
Best candidate6 tx
6,795.36 QUAI • 23 addresses
09/20/2026, 4:00:56 P.M.
+4 min
52 tx
2,532.74 QUAI • 67 addresses
09/20/2026, 4:09:19 P.M.
Biggest whale alert
48.43 QUAI
Derived whale alertAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/20/2026, 4:05:07 P.M.
QUAI transfer observed on Cyprus-1
Derived from the largest observable transfer in this minute because no persisted whale-alert row was found yet.
From: 0x0053E63531C129f8678803beEb62546dF2fAD31d
To: 0x006432Ea8c46cBF981f6e710d2439C941CeBe2d0
All transfers in this selected minute
4 transactions
35.57 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/20/2026, 4:05:51 P.M.
From: 0x002921A58F4b88B5B6782B8b369120393Ef27b26
To: 0x002b6c6BD946D78307824A7a73DF2207d6B9928e
Tx: 0x00120019eb969ed41da55153df9b6400f6a8680746d8454fe33e5815e783a6f2
36.27 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/20/2026, 4:05:22 P.M.
From: 0x001c039f068f7EE0A76fd8A089493c6A2bced7FD
To: 0x002b6c6BD946D78307824A7a73DF2207d6B9928e
Tx: 0x0075000d1a9a3751acba79b6d04f085edfaa2e5048ca97b26adbb9ede4522abe
19.85 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/20/2026, 4:05:07 P.M.
From: 0x006576A80291829C0404F17D225d189045674F1D
To: 0x000d6795e06eA4F460CA9572a51741342156305A
Tx: 0x003a00065251e71ca3426c5e0ec81d3d9d21bc26d51315bff8a78811cc6dea06
48.43 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/20/2026, 4:05:07 P.M.
From: 0x0053E63531C129f8678803beEb62546dF2fAD31d
To: 0x006432Ea8c46cBF981f6e710d2439C941CeBe2d0
Tx: 0x0045000653d4096ac2f8104cf026711367a4c746ceaf670070d732d98e74c3d4