Spike bucket
09/20/2026, 3:54:00 P.M.
Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.
Window: 09/20/2026, 3:54:00 P.M. to 09/20/2026, 3:55:00 P.M.
Partially observable spike
low confidence
45% coverage
Whale-driven spike detected
Coverage
Explained QUAI: 128.09
Unexplained QUAI: 157.03
Facts
Pattern: Whale-driven spike
Dominant transfer: 74% of explained volume
Relative context
0.3x above local average
0.3x previous minute
1.0x next minute
Interpretation
Most of this spike is explained by one dominant transfer.
A single transfer leads the visible activity, but some of the bucket remains unexplained.
Shard
Cyprus-1
Bucket tx
5
Observable rows
2
40.0% of bucket activity rendered as rows
Unique addresses
20
Asset volume
285.13 QUAI
Avg confidence
62.0%
Dominant source: account-shape-default
Event intelligence
high priorityWhat happened
Top actor concentration: 0x006432Ea8c46cBF981f6e710d2439C941CeBe2d0 • 0x003596A67E27c316a9DFAb62271be0F9e38C9171.
Dominant behavior: whale rotation
whale_rotation + low confidence + 285 QUAI
Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.
Importance score: 45
Why this spike matters now
Top actor concentration around 0x006432Ea8c46cBF981f6e710d2439C941CeBe2d0 • 0x003596A67E27c316a9DFAb62271be0F9e38C9171.
No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.
Confidence context: low • Source context: account-shape-default
Evidence & confidence
Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available
Based on: 1 related signal • 2 visible transfer rows
Confidence low • Source account-shape-default
Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet • confidence remains low
Data provenance & freshness
Source health: limited • High freshness drift
Stale context window • Thin source coverage
Last updated: 09/20/2026, 3:54:00 P.M.
Coverage gap high (55% not covered)
Based on: 1 related signal • 2 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window
Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.
Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.
Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • source coverage is thin; unseen counterpart activity may be missing • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • observable coverage remains partial (45%) • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window
Why now
Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Actor type hint is unknown with limited confidence; keep validation broad.
What to do next
Run a broad transfer-path check before actor-specific assumptions.
What to verify
- Confirm behavior (whale rotation).
- Re-check identity hints before narrowing the scope.
- Identity hint: Insufficient reliable identity signals; classification kept conservative.
Top actors in this event
0x006432Ea8c46cBF981f6e710d2439C941CeBe2d0
Net receiver
Unknown type
128.09 QUAI across 2 visible rows
0x003596A67E27c316a9DFAb62271be0F9e38C9171
Net sender
Unknown type
95.31 QUAI across 1 visible row
0x002D61B41fE3c140AcE8Ad51A4cca7fa48a3cBdE
Net sender
Unknown type
32.78 QUAI across 1 visible row
Relationship intelligence
Repeated flow pairs
No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.
Type concentration
To exchange: 0 QUAI
From exchange: 0 QUAI
Whale to whale: 0 QUAI
Evidence checks
Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.
- Confirm whale rotation still matches latest flow.
- Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
- Review latest signal or spike before changing status.
Autonomous outcome
Read-only canonical source
Cyprus-1 spike
Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.
Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.
View investigationsNearby active minutes
Use these when the signal spills into adjacent minutes
Selected minute
2 tx
1,411.6 QUAI • 15 addresses
09/20/2026, 3:53:44 P.M.
-1 min
1 tx
1,000 QUAI • 15 addresses
09/20/2026, 3:52:33 P.M.
+1 min
5 tx
285.13 QUAI • 20 addresses
09/20/2026, 3:54:56 P.M.
+2 min
2 tx
793.62 QUAI • 16 addresses
09/20/2026, 3:56:08 P.M.
-3 min
5 tx
1,193.91 QUAI • 18 addresses
09/20/2026, 3:51:22 P.M.
+3 min
4 tx
639.91 QUAI • 19 addresses
09/20/2026, 3:57:20 P.M.
-4 min
2 tx
173.07 QUAI • 14 addresses
09/20/2026, 3:50:10 P.M.
-5 min
Best candidate5 tx
1,641.48 QUAI • 14 addresses
09/20/2026, 3:48:58 P.M.
Biggest whale alert
95.31 QUAI
Derived whale alertPrimary driver of this spikeAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/20/2026, 3:54:04 P.M.
QUAI transfer observed on Cyprus-1
Derived from the largest observable transfer in this minute because no persisted whale-alert row was found yet.
From: 0x003596A67E27c316a9DFAb62271be0F9e38C9171
To: 0x006432Ea8c46cBF981f6e710d2439C941CeBe2d0
All transfers in this selected minute
2 transactions
32.78 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/20/2026, 3:54:24 P.M.
From: 0x002D61B41fE3c140AcE8Ad51A4cca7fa48a3cBdE
To: 0x006432Ea8c46cBF981f6e710d2439C941CeBe2d0
Tx: 0x00390049d0e0b84c756a0b2b3d6a6a4dc1306248ec99e34b40e7481e7857dd79
95.31 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/20/2026, 3:54:04 P.M.
From: 0x003596A67E27c316a9DFAb62271be0F9e38C9171
To: 0x006432Ea8c46cBF981f6e710d2439C941CeBe2d0
Tx: 0x0007007c3bc87afdb4dc3d2a020af566c0ee8be99ed792f443a09839e7a9dfff