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Spike bucket

09/20/2026, 3:21:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 09/20/2026, 3:21:00 P.M. to 09/20/2026, 3:22:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

medium confidence

100% coverage

Large spike

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 575,996.16

Unexplained QUAI: 377.95

Facts

Pattern: Mixed spike

Dominant transfer: 62% of explained volume

Relative context

6.5x above local average

10582x previous minute

6.5x next minute

Largest nearby bucket

Interpretation

This spike is partially explained by multiple visible transfers.

One transfer stands out, but supporting activity also contributes materially.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

37.5% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

576,374.11 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

high priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x007e2F1a4709B812F339f22E18032118FBcc8987 • 0x002a08a5738c760Cca57A4b3F28Da7257982Ca49.

Dominant behavior: distribution

distribution + medium confidence + 576374 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 64

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x007e2F1a4709B812F339f22E18032118FBcc8987 • 0x002a08a5738c760Cca57A4b3F28Da7257982Ca49.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: medium • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 3 visible transfer rows

Confidence medium • Source account-shape-default

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Broad source coverage

Last updated: 09/20/2026, 3:21:00 P.M.

Coverage gaps appear limited

Based on: 1 related signal • 3 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).

What to do next

Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (distribution).
Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.

Top actors in this event

Gate.io hot wallet

Net receiver

Exchange

575,996.16 QUAI across 3 visible rows

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x002a08a5738c760Cca57A4b3F28Da7257982Ca49

Net sender

Unknown type

359,982.79 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x000176E21C3f53da5C3df2C9F03C23C939F0B661

Net sender

Unknown type

164,535.68 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00323D9C91db7Bb1b441B172dF0567a910cA8CBD

Net sender

Unknown type

51,477.7 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 575,996.16 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm distribution still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

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3 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 8. The remaining 5 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.