Spike bucket
09/20/2026, 12:29:00 P.M.
Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.
Window: 09/20/2026, 12:29:00 P.M. to 09/20/2026, 12:30:00 P.M.
Partially observable spike
low confidence
38% coverage
Whale-driven spike detected
Coverage
Explained QUAI: 59.52
Unexplained QUAI: 98.47
Facts
Pattern: Whale-driven spike
Dominant transfer: 75% of explained volume
Relative context
0.2x above local average
0.7x previous minute
6.9x next minute
Interpretation
Most of this spike is explained by one dominant transfer.
A single transfer leads the visible activity, but some of the bucket remains unexplained.
Shard
Cyprus-1
Bucket tx
3
Observable rows
2
66.7% of bucket activity rendered as rows
Unique addresses
17
Asset volume
157.99 QUAI
Avg confidence
62.0%
Dominant source: account-shape-default
Event intelligence
high priorityWhat happened
Top actor concentration: 0x0053E63531C129f8678803beEb62546dF2fAD31d • 0x006432Ea8c46cBF981f6e710d2439C941CeBe2d0.
Dominant behavior: whale rotation
whale_rotation + low confidence + 158 QUAI
Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.
Importance score: 45
Why this spike matters now
Top actor concentration around 0x0053E63531C129f8678803beEb62546dF2fAD31d • 0x006432Ea8c46cBF981f6e710d2439C941CeBe2d0.
No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.
Confidence context: low • Source context: account-shape-default
Evidence & confidence
Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available
Based on: 1 related signal • 2 visible transfer rows
Confidence low • Source account-shape-default
Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet • confidence remains low
Data provenance & freshness
Source health: limited • High freshness drift
Stale context window • Thin source coverage
Last updated: 09/20/2026, 12:29:00 P.M.
Coverage gap high (62% not covered)
Based on: 1 related signal • 2 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window
Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.
Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.
Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • source coverage is thin; unseen counterpart activity may be missing • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • observable coverage remains partial (38%) • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window
Why now
Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Actor type hint is unknown with limited confidence; keep validation broad.
What to do next
Run a broad transfer-path check before actor-specific assumptions.
What to verify
- Confirm behavior (whale rotation).
- Re-check identity hints before narrowing the scope.
- Identity hint: Insufficient reliable identity signals; classification kept conservative.
Top actors in this event
0x0053E63531C129f8678803beEb62546dF2fAD31d
Net sender
Unknown type
44.52 QUAI across 1 visible row
0x006432Ea8c46cBF981f6e710d2439C941CeBe2d0
Net receiver
Unknown type
44.52 QUAI across 1 visible row
0x0029d78014737EbdFC1A9Cac60F7b2a301f9294C
Net sender
Unknown type
15 QUAI across 1 visible row
0x004Bc407903A51506bcF0b1aB423958c5991c237
Net receiver
Unknown type
15 QUAI across 1 visible row
Relationship intelligence
Repeated flow pairs
No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.
Type concentration
To exchange: 0 QUAI
From exchange: 0 QUAI
Whale to whale: 0 QUAI
Evidence checks
Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.
- Confirm whale rotation still matches latest flow.
- Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
- Review latest signal or spike before changing status.
Autonomous outcome
Read-only canonical source
Cyprus-1 spike
Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.
Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.
View investigationsNearby active minutes
Use these when the signal spills into adjacent minutes
Selected minute
3 tx
157.99 QUAI • 17 addresses
09/20/2026, 12:29:16 P.M.
-1 min
5 tx
239.8 QUAI • 23 addresses
09/20/2026, 12:28:04 P.M.
+1 min
1 tx
22.86 QUAI • 15 addresses
09/20/2026, 12:30:28 P.M.
-2 min
4 tx
1,112.73 QUAI • 19 addresses
09/20/2026, 12:26:53 P.M.
-3 min
3 tx
598.45 QUAI • 20 addresses
09/20/2026, 12:25:40 P.M.
+3 min
2 tx
235.6 QUAI • 14 addresses
09/20/2026, 12:31:39 P.M.
+4 min
5 tx
329.39 QUAI • 22 addresses
09/20/2026, 12:32:51 P.M.
-5 min
Best candidate7 tx
4,180.4 QUAI • 28 addresses
09/20/2026, 12:24:28 P.M.
Biggest whale alert
44.52 QUAI
Derived whale alertPrimary driver of this spikeAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/20/2026, 12:29:01 P.M.
QUAI transfer observed on Cyprus-1
Derived from the largest observable transfer in this minute because no persisted whale-alert row was found yet.
From: 0x0053E63531C129f8678803beEb62546dF2fAD31d
To: 0x006432Ea8c46cBF981f6e710d2439C941CeBe2d0
All transfers in this selected minute
2 transactions
44.52 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/20/2026, 12:29:01 P.M.
From: 0x0053E63531C129f8678803beEb62546dF2fAD31d
To: 0x006432Ea8c46cBF981f6e710d2439C941CeBe2d0
Tx: 0x00310007f5890e68414b3adfa114d5c5d8ff74bd252d294efeb2677425084d37
15 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/20/2026, 12:29:01 P.M.
From: 0x0029d78014737EbdFC1A9Cac60F7b2a301f9294C
To: 0x004Bc407903A51506bcF0b1aB423958c5991c237
Tx: 0x001200198d3117702f24af6340004c52e5430490ed6adb532c0705a48d6abf46