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Spike bucket

09/20/2026, 4:35:00 A.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 09/20/2026, 4:35:00 A.M. to 09/20/2026, 4:36:00 A.M.

Partially observable spike

low confidence

56% coverage

Whale-driven spike detected

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 5,932.03

Unexplained QUAI: 4,697.58

Facts

Pattern: Whale-driven spike

Dominant transfer: 84% of explained volume

Relative context

2.4x above local average

1.0x previous minute

1.0x next minute

Interpretation

Most of this spike is explained by one dominant transfer.

A single transfer leads the visible activity, but some of the bucket remains unexplained.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

50.0% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

10,629.61 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

high priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x0004e31f55d13e714cE808D20608a8545344D19F.

Dominant behavior: whale rotation

whale_rotation + low confidence + 10630 QUAI

Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.

Importance score: 45

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x0004e31f55d13e714cE808D20608a8545344D19F.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: low • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 4 visible transfer rows

Confidence low • Source account-shape-default

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet • confidence remains low

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Partial source coverage

Last updated: 09/20/2026, 4:35:00 A.M.

Coverage gap moderate (44% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 4 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • observable coverage remains partial (56%) • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).

What to do next

Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (whale rotation).
Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.

Top actors in this event

MEXC hot wallet

Net receiver

Exchange

5,840.65 QUAI across 2 visible rows

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0004e31f55d13e714cE808D20608a8545344D19F

Net sender

Unknown type

4,999.23 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0056cD7C9cD80237e79aA4ca2723cA0E6312Bb9B

Net sender

Unknown type

841.42 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0000E74F55B4e6971AE2A43Ea30f4ae9F9f5607F

Net sender

Unknown type

52.92 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00639FCa0886Cfd72350A78c8c37D791457c0d7f

Net receiver

Unknown type

52.92 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 5,840.65 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm whale rotation still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

View investigations

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4 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 8. The remaining 4 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.