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Spike bucket

09/20/2026, 1:03:00 A.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 09/20/2026, 1:03:00 A.M. to 09/20/2026, 1:04:00 A.M.

Partially observable spike

low confidence

52% coverage

Whale-driven spike detected

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 26,138.66

Unexplained QUAI: 24,537.14

Facts

Pattern: Whale-driven spike

Dominant transfer: 77% of explained volume

Relative context

3.2x above local average

2.5x previous minute

1.9x next minute

Interpretation

Most of this spike is explained by one dominant transfer.

A single transfer leads the visible activity, but some of the bucket remains unexplained.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

9.6% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

50,675.8 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

high priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x0004bd2675df7f120FfF0F14a31E203C449B4B81 • 0x002a08a5738c760Cca57A4b3F28Da7257982Ca49.

Dominant behavior: whale rotation

whale_rotation + low confidence + 50676 QUAI

Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.

Importance score: 50

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x0004bd2675df7f120FfF0F14a31E203C449B4B81 • 0x002a08a5738c760Cca57A4b3F28Da7257982Ca49.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: low • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 5 visible transfer rows

Confidence low • Source account-shape-default

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet • confidence remains low

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Partial source coverage

Last updated: 09/20/2026, 1:03:00 A.M.

Coverage gap moderate (48% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 5 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • observable coverage remains partial (52%) • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Actor type hint is unknown with limited confidence; keep validation broad.

What to do next

Run a broad transfer-path check before actor-specific assumptions.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (whale rotation).
Re-check identity hints before narrowing the scope.
Identity hint: Insufficient reliable identity signals; classification kept conservative.

Top actors in this event

0x0004bd2675df7f120FfF0F14a31E203C449B4B81

Net sender

Unknown type

19,999.05 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x002a08a5738c760Cca57A4b3F28Da7257982Ca49

Net receiver

Unknown type

19,999.05 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0039e50889ff4463517C97C1F5Ee962999c9D3B6

Net sender

Unknown type

6,066.9 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0075B7f9F9B07c9cB9797926399F7298Edf5E182

Net receiver

Unknown type

6,066.9 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0059b03F6a79b75a91F994e00227265751dAE71C

Net sender

Unknown type

39.25 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 0 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm whale rotation still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

View investigations

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5 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 52. The remaining 47 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.