Spike bucket
09/18/2026, 11:03:00 P.M.
Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.
Window: 09/18/2026, 11:03:00 P.M. to 09/18/2026, 11:04:00 P.M.
Partially observable spike
low confidence
36% coverage
Whale-driven spike detected
Coverage
Explained QUAI: 1,226.38
Unexplained QUAI: 2,158.55
Explained QI: 946.28
Unexplained QI: 0
Facts
Pattern: Whale-driven spike
Dominant transfer: 82% of explained volume
Relative context
2.2x above local average
29x previous minute
1.3x next minute
Interpretation
Most of this spike is explained by one dominant transfer.
A single transfer leads the visible activity, but some of the bucket remains unexplained.
Shard
Cyprus-1
Bucket tx
56
Observable rows
9
16.1% of bucket activity rendered as rows
Unique addresses
71
Asset volume
3,384.94 QUAI
946.28 QI
Avg confidence
75.3%
Dominant source: account-shape-default
Event intelligence
high priorityWhat happened
Top actor concentration: 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x0020BdF125303a076Ec0648E186eD6fA85687D66.
Dominant behavior: whale rotation
whale_rotation + low confidence + 3385 QUAI
Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.
Importance score: 45
Why this spike matters now
Top actor concentration around 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x0020BdF125303a076Ec0648E186eD6fA85687D66.
0x0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 -> 0x006ef231e9EDa08dFDAb9e3E964CD3e9e86684c2 (4 repeated flows).
Confidence context: low • Source context: account-shape-default
Evidence & confidence
Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available
Based on: 1 related signal • 9 visible transfer rows • 1 repeated counterpart flow
Confidence low • Source account-shape-default
Limits: confidence remains low
Data provenance & freshness
Source health: limited • High freshness drift
Stale context window • Thin source coverage
Last updated: 09/18/2026, 11:03:00 P.M.
Coverage gap high (64% not covered)
Based on: 1 related signal • 9 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window
Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.
Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.
Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • source coverage is thin; unseen counterpart activity may be missing • observable coverage remains partial (36%) • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window
Why now
Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).
What to do next
Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.
What to verify
- Confirm behavior (whale rotation).
- Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
- Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.
Top actors in this event
MEXC hot wallet
Net receiver
Exchange
1,117.23 QUAI across 2 visible rows
Known watch context
0x0020BdF125303a076Ec0648E186eD6fA85687D66
Net sender
Unknown type
1,011.24 QUAI across 1 visible row
0x0000000000000000000000000000000000000000
Net sender
Unknown type
946.28 QI across 4 visible rows
0x006ef231e9EDa08dFDAb9e3E964CD3e9e86684c2
Net receiver
Unknown type
946.28 QI across 4 visible rows
0x00168639eAfC0f3BFA527e17917D8FCcaFfDb616
Net sender
Unknown type
105.98 QUAI across 1 visible row
Relationship intelligence
Repeated flow pairs
0x0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 → 0x006ef231e9EDa08dFDAb9e3E964CD3e9e86684c2
4 repeated flows • 946.28 QI
Type concentration
To exchange: 1,117.23 QUAI
From exchange: 0 QUAI
Whale to whale: 0 QUAI
Evidence checks
Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.
- Confirm whale rotation still matches latest flow.
- Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
- Review latest signal or spike before changing status.
Autonomous outcome
Read-only canonical source
Cyprus-1 spike
Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.
Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.
View investigationsNearby active minutes
Use these when the signal spills into adjacent minutes
Selected minute
56 tx
3,384.94 QUAI • 71 addresses
09/18/2026, 11:03:17 P.M.
-1 min
3 tx
118 QUAI • 17 addresses
09/18/2026, 11:02:05 P.M.
-2 min
5 tx
163.42 QUAI • 20 addresses
09/18/2026, 11:00:54 P.M.
+2 min
59 tx
2,638.68 QUAI • 73 addresses
09/18/2026, 11:04:30 P.M.
-3 min
Best candidate5 tx
4,412 QUAI • 21 addresses
09/18/2026, 10:59:42 P.M.
+3 min
4 tx
51.1 QUAI • 15 addresses
09/18/2026, 11:05:42 P.M.
+4 min
32 tx
1,195.22 QUAI • 46 addresses
09/18/2026, 11:06:55 P.M.
-5 min
4 tx
377.75 QUAI • 22 addresses
09/18/2026, 10:58:29 P.M.
Biggest whale alert
1,011.24 QUAI
Whale alertPrimary driver of this spikeAccount Shape Default62.0% confidenceInflow to whale
Cyprus-1
09/18/2026, 11:03:15 P.M.
QUAI whale transfer detected on Cyprus-1
From: 0x0020BdF125303a076Ec0648E186eD6fA85687D66
To: MEXC hot wallet
0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a
Exchange
All transfers in this selected minute
9 transactions
246.19 QI
Observed transferEtx Type92.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/18/2026, 11:03:53 P.M.
From: 0x0000000000000000000000000000000000000000
To: 0x006ef231e9EDa08dFDAb9e3E964CD3e9e86684c2
Tx: 0x00730035c139de37e554be7ef48f2123fda0e0137a5edfb306d0172a5f836ba2
10.25 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/18/2026, 11:03:38 P.M.
From: 0x0001BA1d467bFA8B5c09C7EAc2E8f8E283667E4B
To: 0x003067b067Cb41FeF60051d26bA4B5b1AaFb3e53
Tx: 0x00780042dd5cb02b4aa864aad18363dee5a613b8aa8b8a7d359f16cc7d660590
30.13 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/18/2026, 11:03:38 P.M.
From: 0x0059b03F6a79b75a91F994e00227265751dAE71C
To: 0x0037F0FAAf49727f305cef2E9daaA4FA98DD9516
Tx: 0x006b0060098720d43c9498f947c4032dde479d4aee922a243e8cf17fc68d27b6
68.77 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/18/2026, 11:03:35 P.M.
From: 0x0062C7a3aC251EEA521F8e89AC6E4A74D34Ec051
To: 0x000d6795e06eA4F460CA9572a51741342156305A
Tx: 0x00510049fe90f21f786217ddc2f830c565bead86d00e3a893c19698d6121e2dd
225.43 QI
Observed transferEtx Type92.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/18/2026, 11:03:28 P.M.
From: 0x0000000000000000000000000000000000000000
To: 0x006ef231e9EDa08dFDAb9e3E964CD3e9e86684c2
Tx: 0x0016005facdbb67118995ac565c2dfa98cd0a0c8646e4031ceee819df898089e
225.43 QI
Observed transferEtx Type92.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/18/2026, 11:03:28 P.M.
From: 0x0000000000000000000000000000000000000000
To: 0x006ef231e9EDa08dFDAb9e3E964CD3e9e86684c2
Tx: 0x001b001c5fba7b9b327662ff2abb212ee7fede1e25f665231e21c721f3599edb
105.98 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidenceInflow to whale
Cyprus-1
09/18/2026, 11:03:15 P.M.
From: 0x00168639eAfC0f3BFA527e17917D8FCcaFfDb616
To: MEXC hot wallet
0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a
Exchange
Tx: 0x005b0038bec9fa5979d084a114a49363ee327a9500d69ce61dc15df29d9bbd32
1,011.24 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidenceInflow to whale
Cyprus-1
09/18/2026, 11:03:15 P.M.
From: 0x0020BdF125303a076Ec0648E186eD6fA85687D66
To: MEXC hot wallet
0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a
Exchange
Tx: 0x0018005c4ee828e9541647fb42708ea82573b63039d0f2807500e4c8fd0d50d3
249.2 QI
Observed transferEtx Type92.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/18/2026, 11:03:02 P.M.
From: 0x0000000000000000000000000000000000000000
To: 0x006ef231e9EDa08dFDAb9e3E964CD3e9e86684c2
Tx: 0x0037006fb53b2da014529af5424f5ddb8c7517dd0a24036e4c71944420ffcf2e