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Spike bucket

09/18/2026, 6:53:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 09/18/2026, 6:53:00 P.M. to 09/18/2026, 6:54:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

low confidence

9% coverage

Whale-driven spike detected

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 202

Unexplained QUAI: 1,938.38

Facts

Pattern: Whale-driven spike

Dominant transfer: 99% of explained volume

Relative context

2.3x above local average

1.7x next minute

Interpretation

Most of this spike is explained by one dominant transfer.

A single transfer leads the visible activity, but some of the bucket remains unexplained.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

50.0% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

2,140.38 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

high priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x001B40347094EF311048d5A21aCc2cC639fF1d77 • 0x0040fdA45BE950802bB4e08a1f5D3E77fC78d288.

Dominant behavior: whale rotation

whale_rotation + low confidence + 2140 QUAI

Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.

Importance score: 45

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x001B40347094EF311048d5A21aCc2cC639fF1d77 • 0x0040fdA45BE950802bB4e08a1f5D3E77fC78d288.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: low • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 2 visible transfer rows

Confidence low • Source account-shape-default

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet • confidence remains low

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Thin source coverage

Last updated: 09/18/2026, 6:53:00 P.M.

Coverage gap high (91% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 2 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • source coverage is thin; unseen counterpart activity may be missing • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • observable coverage remains partial (9%) • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Actor type hint is unknown with limited confidence; keep validation broad.

What to do next

Run a broad transfer-path check before actor-specific assumptions.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (whale rotation).
Re-check identity hints before narrowing the scope.
Identity hint: Insufficient reliable identity signals; classification kept conservative.

Top actors in this event

0x001B40347094EF311048d5A21aCc2cC639fF1d77

Net sender

Unknown type

202 QUAI across 2 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0040fdA45BE950802bB4e08a1f5D3E77fC78d288

Net receiver

Unknown type

200 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x006d0067e3a5FFF1E38975d03B664780E3723103

Net receiver

Unknown type

2 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 0 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm whale rotation still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

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2 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 4. The remaining 2 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.