Spike bucket
09/18/2026, 3:06:00 P.M.
Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.
Window: 09/18/2026, 3:06:00 P.M. to 09/18/2026, 3:07:00 P.M.
Partially observable spike
low confidence
19% coverage
Whale-driven spike detected
Coverage
Explained QUAI: 91.04
Unexplained QUAI: 383.15
Facts
Pattern: Whale-driven spike
Dominant transfer: 74% of explained volume
Relative context
1.5x above local average
5.7x previous minute
1.0x next minute
Interpretation
Most of this spike is explained by one dominant transfer.
A single transfer leads the visible activity, but some of the bucket remains unexplained.
Shard
Cyprus-1
Bucket tx
8
Observable rows
3
37.5% of bucket activity rendered as rows
Unique addresses
18
Asset volume
474.18 QUAI
Avg confidence
62.0%
Dominant source: account-shape-default
Event intelligence
high priorityWhat happened
Top actor concentration: 0x002D61B41fE3c140AcE8Ad51A4cca7fa48a3cBdE • 0x002b6c6BD946D78307824A7a73DF2207d6B9928e.
Dominant behavior: whale rotation
whale_rotation + low confidence + 474 QUAI
Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.
Importance score: 45
Why this spike matters now
Top actor concentration around 0x002D61B41fE3c140AcE8Ad51A4cca7fa48a3cBdE • 0x002b6c6BD946D78307824A7a73DF2207d6B9928e.
No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.
Confidence context: low • Source context: account-shape-default
Evidence & confidence
Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available
Based on: 1 related signal • 3 visible transfer rows
Confidence low • Source account-shape-default
Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet • confidence remains low
Data provenance & freshness
Source health: limited • High freshness drift
Stale context window • Thin source coverage
Last updated: 09/18/2026, 3:06:00 P.M.
Coverage gap high (81% not covered)
Based on: 1 related signal • 3 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window
Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.
Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.
Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • source coverage is thin; unseen counterpart activity may be missing • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • observable coverage remains partial (19%) • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window
Why now
Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Actor type hint is unknown with limited confidence; keep validation broad.
What to do next
Run a broad transfer-path check before actor-specific assumptions.
What to verify
- Confirm behavior (whale rotation).
- Re-check identity hints before narrowing the scope.
- Identity hint: Insufficient reliable identity signals; classification kept conservative.
Top actors in this event
0x002D61B41fE3c140AcE8Ad51A4cca7fa48a3cBdE
Net sender
Unknown type
67.04 QUAI across 1 visible row
0x002b6c6BD946D78307824A7a73DF2207d6B9928e
Net receiver
Unknown type
67.04 QUAI across 1 visible row
0x005BcE3cc1ceCD870bE5a2fcB6dEc9674FD95c79
Net sender
Unknown type
12.66 QUAI across 1 visible row
0x0012fE99c6dE55353F373e1276b27a19d8A0b907
Net receiver
Unknown type
12.66 QUAI across 1 visible row
0x0001BA1d467bFA8B5c09C7EAc2E8f8E283667E4B
Net sender
Unknown type
11.33 QUAI across 1 visible row
Relationship intelligence
Repeated flow pairs
No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.
Type concentration
To exchange: 0 QUAI
From exchange: 0 QUAI
Whale to whale: 0 QUAI
Evidence checks
Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.
- Confirm whale rotation still matches latest flow.
- Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
- Review latest signal or spike before changing status.
Autonomous outcome
Read-only canonical source
Cyprus-1 spike
Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.
Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.
View investigationsNearby active minutes
Use these when the signal spills into adjacent minutes
-1 min
1 tx
83.09 QUAI • 14 addresses
09/18/2026, 3:05:20 P.M.
+1 min
8 tx
474.18 QUAI • 18 addresses
09/18/2026, 3:06:32 P.M.
-2 min
Best candidate51 tx
831.89 QUAI • 65 addresses
09/18/2026, 3:04:09 P.M.
+2 min
3 tx
91.04 QUAI • 16 addresses
09/18/2026, 3:07:44 P.M.
-3 min
51 tx
829.22 QUAI • 62 addresses
09/18/2026, 3:02:55 P.M.
+3 min
1 tx
57.91 QUAI • 9 addresses
09/18/2026, 3:08:55 P.M.
-4 min
0 tx
0 QUAI • 10 addresses
09/18/2026, 3:01:43 P.M.
+4 min
2 tx
166.96 QUAI • 16 addresses
09/18/2026, 3:10:07 P.M.
Biggest whale alert
67.04 QUAI
Derived whale alertPrimary driver of this spikeAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/18/2026, 3:06:36 P.M.
QUAI transfer observed on Cyprus-1
Derived from the largest observable transfer in this minute because no persisted whale-alert row was found yet.
From: 0x002D61B41fE3c140AcE8Ad51A4cca7fa48a3cBdE
To: 0x002b6c6BD946D78307824A7a73DF2207d6B9928e
All transfers in this selected minute
3 transactions
11.33 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/18/2026, 3:06:36 P.M.
From: 0x0001BA1d467bFA8B5c09C7EAc2E8f8E283667E4B
To: 0x003067b067Cb41FeF60051d26bA4B5b1AaFb3e53
Tx: 0x00100070e55cce3bd4a4c345906af4d2e0bdd17fb407b116d7610105272aa0d0
67.04 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/18/2026, 3:06:36 P.M.
From: 0x002D61B41fE3c140AcE8Ad51A4cca7fa48a3cBdE
To: 0x002b6c6BD946D78307824A7a73DF2207d6B9928e
Tx: 0x001200037675ee9a99b5ebaf97180a72e221dc5b34c538a06513789b5ad52a99
12.66 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/18/2026, 3:06:36 P.M.
From: 0x005BcE3cc1ceCD870bE5a2fcB6dEc9674FD95c79
To: 0x0012fE99c6dE55353F373e1276b27a19d8A0b907
Tx: 0x000e004dc061198a2de96ea994b09135a9481d1d973bf8bd0b148e81848f47e2