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Spike bucket

09/18/2026, 4:23:00 A.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 09/18/2026, 4:23:00 A.M. to 09/18/2026, 4:24:00 A.M.

Partially observable spike

medium confidence

100% coverage

Whale-driven spike detected

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 20,348.18

Unexplained QUAI: 86.92

Facts

Pattern: Whale-driven spike

Dominant transfer: 98% of explained volume

Relative context

4.0x above local average

1.0x next minute

Interpretation

Most of this spike is explained by one dominant transfer.

Visible rows account for most of the bucket with a clear leading transfer.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

62.5% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

20,435.11 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

high priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x0040Fe2BDBb75B322BBF1E00D3Ec4548AF80a3Ab • 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a.

Dominant behavior: whale rotation

whale_rotation + medium confidence + 20435 QUAI

Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.

Importance score: 53

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x0040Fe2BDBb75B322BBF1E00D3Ec4548AF80a3Ab • 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: medium • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 5 visible transfer rows

Confidence medium • Source account-shape-default

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Broad source coverage

Last updated: 09/18/2026, 4:23:00 A.M.

Coverage gaps appear limited

Based on: 1 related signal • 5 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Actor type hint is unknown with limited confidence; keep validation broad.

What to do next

Run a broad transfer-path check before actor-specific assumptions.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (whale rotation).
Re-check identity hints before narrowing the scope.
Identity hint: Insufficient reliable identity signals; classification kept conservative.

Top actors in this event

0x0040Fe2BDBb75B322BBF1E00D3Ec4548AF80a3Ab

Net sender

Unknown type

19,998.23 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

MEXC hot wallet

Net receiver

Exchange

19,998.23 QUAI across 1 visible row

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x000d6795e06eA4F460CA9572a51741342156305A

Net receiver

Unknown type

238.13 QUAI across 2 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0064ee78ef1634cAF9a4DD337Ec80c0Ff1045061

Net sender

Unknown type

138.88 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x002b6c6BD946D78307824A7a73DF2207d6B9928e

Net receiver

Unknown type

111.82 QUAI across 2 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 19,998.23 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm whale rotation still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

View investigations

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5 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 8. The remaining 3 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.