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Spike bucket

09/17/2026, 9:43:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 09/17/2026, 9:43:00 P.M. to 09/17/2026, 9:44:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

low confidence

17% coverage

Whale-driven spike detected

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 1,091.88

Unexplained QUAI: 5,519.35

Explained QI: 824.32

Unexplained QI: 0

Facts

Pattern: Whale-driven spike

Dominant transfer: 77% of explained volume

Relative context

1.7x above local average

1.1x previous minute

6.6x next minute

Interpretation

Most of this spike is explained by one dominant transfer.

A single transfer leads the visible activity, but some of the bucket remains unexplained.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

54.5% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

6,611.23 QUAI

824.32 QI

Avg confidence

77.0%

Dominant source: etx-type

Event intelligence

high priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x004D31f88cc04958eeF52830EA2c685d4225cb9a • 0x0038D6fec43c83c9827a79a0A258B8Bd24BC41E9.

Dominant behavior: whale rotation

whale_rotation + low confidence + 6611 QUAI

Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.

Importance score: 45

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x004D31f88cc04958eeF52830EA2c685d4225cb9a • 0x0038D6fec43c83c9827a79a0A258B8Bd24BC41E9.

0x0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 -> 0x006ef231e9EDa08dFDAb9e3E964CD3e9e86684c2 (3 repeated flows).

Confidence context: low • Source context: etx-type

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 6 visible transfer rows • 1 repeated counterpart flow

Confidence low • Source etx-type

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • confidence remains low

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Thin source coverage

Last updated: 09/17/2026, 9:43:00 P.M.

Coverage gap high (83% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 6 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: etx-type • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • source coverage is thin; unseen counterpart activity may be missing • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • observable coverage remains partial (17%) • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Actor type hint is unknown with limited confidence; keep validation broad.

What to do next

Run a broad transfer-path check before actor-specific assumptions.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (whale rotation).
Re-check identity hints before narrowing the scope.
Identity hint: Insufficient reliable identity signals; classification kept conservative.

Top actors in this event

0x004D31f88cc04958eeF52830EA2c685d4225cb9a

Net sender

Unknown type

941.88 QUAI across 2 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0038D6fec43c83c9827a79a0A258B8Bd24BC41E9

Net receiver

Unknown type

846 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Net sender

Unknown type

824.32 QI across 3 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x006ef231e9EDa08dFDAb9e3E964CD3e9e86684c2

Net receiver

Unknown type

824.32 QI across 3 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0078dad5CEA8B6204b2f9035D6805838b83527f7

Net sender

Unknown type

150 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

0x0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 → 0x006ef231e9EDa08dFDAb9e3E964CD3e9e86684c2

3 repeated flows • 824.32 QI

Type concentration

To exchange: 0 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm whale rotation still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

View investigations

Inspect nearby minutes

Jump around the selected bucket quickly when the exact minute is sparse, delayed, or mostly aggregated.

-15 min -5 min -1 min +1 min +5 min +15 min Raw alerts API

6 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 11. The remaining 5 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.