Spike bucket
09/17/2026, 6:10:00 P.M.
Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.
Window: 09/17/2026, 6:10:00 P.M. to 09/17/2026, 6:11:00 P.M.
Partially observable spike
low confidence
22% coverage
Whale-driven spike detected
Coverage
Explained QUAI: 25.77
Unexplained QUAI: 91.3
Explained QI: 0
Unexplained QI: 301.99
Facts
Pattern: Whale-driven spike
Dominant transfer: 100% of explained volume
Relative context
0.0x above local average
0.5x previous minute
1.0x next minute
Interpretation
Most of this spike is explained by one dominant transfer.
A single transfer leads the visible activity, but some of the bucket remains unexplained.
Shard
Cyprus-1
Bucket tx
4
Observable rows
1
25.0% of bucket activity rendered as rows
Unique addresses
22
Asset volume
117.07 QUAI
301.99 QI
Avg confidence
62.0%
Dominant source: account-shape-default
Event intelligence
high priorityWhat happened
Top actor concentration: 0x001c039f068f7EE0A76fd8A089493c6A2bced7FD • 0x002b6c6BD946D78307824A7a73DF2207d6B9928e.
Dominant behavior: whale rotation
whale_rotation + low confidence + 117 QUAI
Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.
Importance score: 45
Why this spike matters now
Top actor concentration around 0x001c039f068f7EE0A76fd8A089493c6A2bced7FD • 0x002b6c6BD946D78307824A7a73DF2207d6B9928e.
No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.
Confidence context: low • Source context: account-shape-default
Evidence & confidence
Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available
Based on: 1 related signal • 1 visible transfer row
Confidence low • Source account-shape-default
Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet • confidence remains low
Data provenance & freshness
Source health: limited • High freshness drift
Stale context window • Thin source coverage
Last updated: 09/17/2026, 6:10:00 P.M.
Coverage gap high (78% not covered)
Based on: 1 related signal • 1 transfer row • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window
Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.
Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.
Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • source coverage is thin; unseen counterpart activity may be missing • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • observable coverage remains partial (22%) • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window
Why now
Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Actor type hint is unknown with limited confidence; keep validation broad.
What to do next
Run a broad transfer-path check before actor-specific assumptions.
What to verify
- Confirm behavior (whale rotation).
- Re-check identity hints before narrowing the scope.
- Identity hint: Insufficient reliable identity signals; classification kept conservative.
Top actors in this event
0x001c039f068f7EE0A76fd8A089493c6A2bced7FD
Net sender
Unknown type
25.77 QUAI across 1 visible row
0x002b6c6BD946D78307824A7a73DF2207d6B9928e
Net receiver
Unknown type
25.77 QUAI across 1 visible row
Relationship intelligence
Repeated flow pairs
No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.
Type concentration
To exchange: 0 QUAI
From exchange: 0 QUAI
Whale to whale: 0 QUAI
Evidence checks
Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.
- Confirm whale rotation still matches latest flow.
- Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
- Review latest signal or spike before changing status.
Autonomous outcome
Read-only canonical source
Cyprus-1 spike
Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.
Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.
View investigationsNearby active minutes
Use these when the signal spills into adjacent minutes
Selected minute
3 tx
13.17 QUAI • 14 addresses
09/17/2026, 6:09:43 P.M.
-1 min
3 tx
223.14 QUAI • 19 addresses
09/17/2026, 6:08:32 P.M.
+1 min
4 tx
117.07 QUAI • 22 addresses
09/17/2026, 6:10:55 P.M.
+2 min
4 tx
2,741.33 QUAI • 21 addresses
09/17/2026, 6:12:06 P.M.
-3 min
21 tx
1,398.77 QUAI • 37 addresses
09/17/2026, 6:07:20 P.M.
+3 min
5 tx
239.72 QUAI • 17 addresses
09/17/2026, 6:13:19 P.M.
-4 min
Best candidate11 tx
31,016.78 QUAI • 24 addresses
09/17/2026, 6:06:08 P.M.
-5 min
56 tx
1,236.48 QUAI • 75 addresses
09/17/2026, 6:04:56 P.M.
Biggest whale alert
25.77 QUAI
Derived whale alertPrimary driver of this spikeAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/17/2026, 6:10:41 P.M.
QUAI transfer observed on Cyprus-1
Derived from the largest observable transfer in this minute because no persisted whale-alert row was found yet.
From: 0x001c039f068f7EE0A76fd8A089493c6A2bced7FD
To: 0x002b6c6BD946D78307824A7a73DF2207d6B9928e
All transfers in this selected minute
1 transactions
25.77 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/17/2026, 6:10:41 P.M.
From: 0x001c039f068f7EE0A76fd8A089493c6A2bced7FD
To: 0x002b6c6BD946D78307824A7a73DF2207d6B9928e
Tx: 0x006000198e6fd1574ded9c9f39d2386ce3498375239ab01e33964db57d24f249