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Spike bucket

09/15/2026, 6:04:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 09/15/2026, 6:04:00 P.M. to 09/15/2026, 6:05:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

medium confidence

97% coverage

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 940.18

Unexplained QUAI: 30.36

Facts

Pattern: Distributed activity

Dominant transfer: 17% of explained volume

Relative context

0.2x above local average

0.0x previous minute

1.0x next minute

Interpretation

Visible rows explain most of the spike, with no single transfer dominating.

The spike appears distributed, but some of the bucket still remains unexplained.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

98.0% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

970.55 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

medium priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x006c515c33b7dd4f2A298626e3Bf931e05B480da • 0x007Bd3599a5d926BF5a6a1655EDD1329D8A36D43.

Dominant behavior: mixed flow

mixed_flow + medium confidence + 971 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 35

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x006c515c33b7dd4f2A298626e3Bf931e05B480da • 0x007Bd3599a5d926BF5a6a1655EDD1329D8A36D43.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: medium • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 50 visible transfer rows

Confidence medium • Source account-shape-default

Limits: no repeated pair pattern yet

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Broad source coverage

Last updated: 09/15/2026, 6:04:00 P.M.

Coverage gaps appear limited

Based on: 1 related signal • 50 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Actor type hint is unknown with limited confidence; keep validation broad.

What to do next

Run a broad transfer-path check before actor-specific assumptions.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (mixed flow).
Re-check identity hints before narrowing the scope.
Identity hint: Insufficient reliable identity signals; classification kept conservative.

Top actors in this event

0x006c515c33b7dd4f2A298626e3Bf931e05B480da

Net sender

Unknown type

940.18 QUAI across 50 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x007Bd3599a5d926BF5a6a1655EDD1329D8A36D43

Net receiver

Unknown type

160.63 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x007ce9eB5E503a83fB9887Af17A7b234224Df484

Net receiver

Unknown type

111.21 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0001ec798D9186b010De72732d4Cf04E594D9d52

Net receiver

Unknown type

101.72 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00159dd09a39392B64993e8834A05A7432B0D9C2

Net receiver

Unknown type

100.31 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 0 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm mixed flow still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

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50 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 51. The remaining 1 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.