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Spike bucket

09/15/2026, 5:40:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 09/15/2026, 5:40:00 P.M. to 09/15/2026, 5:41:00 P.M.
Partially observable spike
low confidence
1% coverage
Whale-driven spike detected
Coverage
Explained QUAI: 126.68
Unexplained QUAI: 11,545.52
Facts
Pattern: Whale-driven spike
Dominant transfer: 100% of explained volume
Relative context
1.3x above local average
73x previous minute
92x next minute
Interpretation
Most of this spike is explained by one dominant transfer.
A single transfer leads the visible activity, but some of the bucket remains unexplained.
Shard
Cyprus-1
Bucket tx
3
Observable rows
1
33.3% of bucket activity rendered as rows
Unique addresses
23
Asset volume
11,672.2 QUAI
Avg confidence
62.0%
Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

high priority
What happened
Top actor concentration: 0x001c039f068f7EE0A76fd8A089493c6A2bced7FD • 0x004a5F89bbf4625B783D643B0394148A80B6E877.
Dominant behavior: whale rotation
whale_rotation + low confidence + 11672 QUAI
Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.
Importance score: 45
Why this spike matters now
Top actor concentration around 0x001c039f068f7EE0A76fd8A089493c6A2bced7FD • 0x004a5F89bbf4625B783D643B0394148A80B6E877.
No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.
Confidence context: low • Source context: account-shape-default
Evidence & confidence
Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available
Based on: 1 related signal • 1 visible transfer row
Confidence low • Source account-shape-default
Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet • confidence remains low
Data provenance & freshness
Source health: limited • High freshness drift
Stale context window • Thin source coverage
Last updated: 09/15/2026, 5:40:00 P.M.
Coverage gap high (99% not covered)
Based on: 1 related signal • 1 transfer row • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window
Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.
Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.
Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • source coverage is thin; unseen counterpart activity may be missing • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • observable coverage remains partial (1%) • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window
Why now
Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Actor type hint is unknown with limited confidence; keep validation broad.
What to do next
Run a broad transfer-path check before actor-specific assumptions.
What to verify
  • Confirm behavior (whale rotation).
  • Re-check identity hints before narrowing the scope.
  • Identity hint: Insufficient reliable identity signals; classification kept conservative.

Top actors in this event

0x001c039f068f7EE0A76fd8A089493c6A2bced7FD
Net sender
Unknown type
126.68 QUAI across 1 visible row
Actor intelligenceWallet profile
0x004a5F89bbf4625B783D643B0394148A80B6E877
Net receiver
Unknown type
126.68 QUAI across 1 visible row
Actor intelligenceWallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs
No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.
Type concentration
To exchange: 0 QUAI
From exchange: 0 QUAI
Whale to whale: 0 QUAI
Alert contextSignal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.
  • Confirm whale rotation still matches latest flow.
  • Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
  • Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source
Cyprus-1 spike
Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.
Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.
View investigations

Inspect nearby minutes

Jump around the selected bucket quickly when the exact minute is sparse, delayed, or mostly aggregated.

-15 min-5 min-1 min+1 min+5 min+15 minRaw alerts API
1 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 3. The remaining 2 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.

Nearby active minutes

Use these when the signal spills into adjacent minutes
Selected minute
3 tx
11,672.2 QUAI • 23 addresses
09/15/2026, 5:40:02 P.M.
-1 min
2 tx
159.19 QUAI • 17 addresses
09/15/2026, 5:38:43 P.M.
+1 min
1 tx
126.68 QUAI • 13 addresses
09/15/2026, 5:41:22 P.M.
-3 min
Best candidate6 tx
50,928.74 QUAI • 28 addresses
09/15/2026, 5:37:23 P.M.
+3 min
0 tx
0 QUAI • 16 addresses
09/15/2026, 5:42:43 P.M.
-4 min
4 tx
10,281.79 QUAI • 22 addresses
09/15/2026, 5:36:03 P.M.
+4 min
2 tx
178.52 QUAI • 16 addresses
09/15/2026, 5:44:03 P.M.
-5 min
5 tx
717.64 QUAI • 20 addresses
09/15/2026, 5:34:43 P.M.

Biggest whale alert

126.68 QUAI
Whale alertPrimary driver of this spikeAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/15/2026, 5:40:36 P.M.
QUAI whale transfer detected on Cyprus-1
From: 0x001c039f068f7EE0A76fd8A089493c6A2bced7FD
To: 0x004a5F89bbf4625B783D643B0394148A80B6E877
Open tx

All transfers in this selected minute

1 transactions
126.68 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/15/2026, 5:40:36 P.M.
From: 0x001c039f068f7EE0A76fd8A089493c6A2bced7FD
To: 0x004a5F89bbf4625B783D643B0394148A80B6E877
Tx: 0x006f003ec748a9c915eb75077690c4721e481580c230133fc98c12b199d24c2b
Open tx