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Spike bucket

09/15/2026, 5:33:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 09/15/2026, 5:33:00 P.M. to 09/15/2026, 5:34:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

medium confidence

96% coverage

Whale-driven spike detected

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 11,915.69

Unexplained QUAI: 478.14

Facts

Pattern: Whale-driven spike

Dominant transfer: 96% of explained volume

Relative context

0.6x above local average

0.1x previous minute

17x next minute

Interpretation

Most of this spike is explained by one dominant transfer.

Visible rows account for most of the bucket with a clear leading transfer.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

83.3% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

12,393.83 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

high priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x004d39b85017F53e6051751d7B44308F7ABEc639 • 0x0044901c9180267bcAB587f981Cc4A70b184f5Da.

Dominant behavior: whale rotation

whale_rotation + medium confidence + 12394 QUAI

Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.

Importance score: 53

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x004d39b85017F53e6051751d7B44308F7ABEc639 • 0x0044901c9180267bcAB587f981Cc4A70b184f5Da.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: medium • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 5 visible transfer rows

Confidence medium • Source account-shape-default

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Broad source coverage

Last updated: 09/15/2026, 5:33:00 P.M.

Coverage gaps appear limited

Based on: 1 related signal • 5 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Actor type hint is unknown with limited confidence; keep validation broad.

What to do next

Run a broad transfer-path check before actor-specific assumptions.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (whale rotation).
Re-check identity hints before narrowing the scope.
Identity hint: Insufficient reliable identity signals; classification kept conservative.

Top actors in this event

0x004d39b85017F53e6051751d7B44308F7ABEc639

Net sender

Unknown type

11,448.05 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0044901c9180267bcAB587f981Cc4A70b184f5Da

Net receiver

Unknown type

11,448.05 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x001a587f4A7629217aBd3A02DEE19D7190F38BB0

Net receiver

Unknown type

350 QUAI across 2 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

StratumX miner

Net sender

Miner wallet

250 QUAI across 1 visible row

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00752239b55ca5D2e722Fa2f5b4Dc76E9dF3db9E

Net sender

Unknown type

101.62 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 0 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm whale rotation still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

View investigations

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-15 min -5 min -1 min +1 min +5 min +15 min Raw alerts API

5 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 6. The remaining 1 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.