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Spike bucket

09/15/2026, 4:08:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 09/15/2026, 4:08:00 P.M. to 09/15/2026, 4:09:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

medium confidence

73% coverage

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 319.11

Unexplained QUAI: 117.75

Facts

Pattern: Mixed spike

Dominant transfer: 36% of explained volume

Relative context

0.6x above local average

0.4x previous minute

1.0x next minute

Interpretation

This spike is partially explained by multiple visible transfers.

No single transfer fully dominates the explained volume.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

75.0% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

436.86 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

high priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x002776F2cd8833C4409c9A17E1465214617CE92e.

Dominant behavior: distribution

distribution + medium confidence + 437 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 45

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x002776F2cd8833C4409c9A17E1465214617CE92e.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: medium • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 3 visible transfer rows

Confidence medium • Source account-shape-default

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Partial source coverage

Last updated: 09/15/2026, 4:08:00 P.M.

Coverage gap moderate (27% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 3 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).

What to do next

Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (distribution).
Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.

Top actors in this event

MEXC hot wallet

Net receiver

Exchange

319.11 QUAI across 3 visible rows

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x002776F2cd8833C4409c9A17E1465214617CE92e

Net sender

Unknown type

115.89 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00725c0A2c43C1a2c47a3a6dA4C8899079F5C996

Net sender

Unknown type

102.18 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x003Bf2Af543544F1415deA8149d24bF90C23b8b4

Net sender

Unknown type

101.04 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 319.11 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm distribution still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

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3 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 4. The remaining 1 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.