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Spike bucket

09/15/2026, 3:26:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 09/15/2026, 3:26:00 P.M. to 09/15/2026, 3:27:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

low confidence

54% coverage

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 24,714.95

Unexplained QUAI: 20,727.5

Facts

Pattern: Mixed spike

Dominant transfer: 62% of explained volume

Relative context

0.5x above local average

1.1x previous minute

1.8x next minute

Interpretation

This spike is partially explained by multiple visible transfers.

One transfer stands out, but supporting activity also contributes materially.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

51.4% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

45,442.45 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

medium priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x001D6024eadCc759ec8d61E5411918E336A24519 • 0x001E7909A452D50E2B3cCb759E5C0443AA5cc533.

Dominant behavior: distribution

distribution + low confidence + 45442 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 42

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x001D6024eadCc759ec8d61E5411918E336A24519 • 0x001E7909A452D50E2B3cCb759E5C0443AA5cc533.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: low • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 18 visible transfer rows

Confidence low • Source account-shape-default

Limits: no repeated pair pattern yet • confidence remains low

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Partial source coverage

Last updated: 09/15/2026, 3:26:00 P.M.

Coverage gap moderate (46% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 18 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • observable coverage remains partial (54%) • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Actor type hint is unknown with limited confidence; keep validation broad.

What to do next

Run a broad transfer-path check before actor-specific assumptions.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (distribution).
Re-check identity hints before narrowing the scope.
Identity hint: Insufficient reliable identity signals; classification kept conservative.

Top actors in this event

0x001D6024eadCc759ec8d61E5411918E336A24519

Net sender

Unknown type

15,430.71 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x001E7909A452D50E2B3cCb759E5C0443AA5cc533

Net receiver

Unknown type

15,430.71 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Gate.io hot wallet

Net receiver

Exchange

9,193.77 QUAI across 16 visible rows

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x000d5e3941d55bA4F45EaAD33E89425250dbFd22

Net sender

Unknown type

716.95 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0001c825Ee416847b5addFfec140Db1ae022099d

Net sender

Unknown type

680.9 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 9,193.77 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm distribution still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

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18 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 35. The remaining 17 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.