Spike bucket
09/15/2026, 3:15:00 P.M.
Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.
Window: 09/15/2026, 3:15:00 P.M. to 09/15/2026, 3:16:00 P.M.
Partially observable spike
low confidence
2% coverage
Whale-driven spike detected
Coverage
Explained QUAI: 45.46
Unexplained QUAI: 2,983.1
Facts
Pattern: Whale-driven spike
Dominant transfer: 100% of explained volume
Relative context
1.6x above local average
2.2x previous minute
7.7x next minute
Interpretation
Most of this spike is explained by one dominant transfer.
A single transfer leads the visible activity, but some of the bucket remains unexplained.
Shard
Cyprus-1
Bucket tx
8
Observable rows
1
12.5% of bucket activity rendered as rows
Unique addresses
25
Asset volume
3,028.56 QUAI
Avg confidence
62.0%
Dominant source: account-shape-default
Event intelligence
high priorityWhat happened
Top actor concentration: 0x00374FD6D10461B3D50a616173a3fE16eCd5B44c • 0x00261a822E3f70A4F1c8C7e377d699eE97684ee6.
Dominant behavior: whale rotation
whale_rotation + low confidence + 3029 QUAI
Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.
Importance score: 45
Why this spike matters now
Top actor concentration around 0x00374FD6D10461B3D50a616173a3fE16eCd5B44c • 0x00261a822E3f70A4F1c8C7e377d699eE97684ee6.
No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.
Confidence context: low • Source context: account-shape-default
Evidence & confidence
Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available
Based on: 1 related signal • 1 visible transfer row
Confidence low • Source account-shape-default
Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet • confidence remains low
Data provenance & freshness
Source health: limited • High freshness drift
Stale context window • Thin source coverage
Last updated: 09/15/2026, 3:15:00 P.M.
Coverage gap high (98% not covered)
Based on: 1 related signal • 1 transfer row • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window
Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.
Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.
Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • source coverage is thin; unseen counterpart activity may be missing • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • observable coverage remains partial (2%) • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window
Why now
Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Actor type hint is unknown with limited confidence; keep validation broad.
What to do next
Run a broad transfer-path check before actor-specific assumptions.
What to verify
- Confirm behavior (whale rotation).
- Re-check identity hints before narrowing the scope.
- Identity hint: Insufficient reliable identity signals; classification kept conservative.
Top actors in this event
0x00374FD6D10461B3D50a616173a3fE16eCd5B44c
Net sender
Unknown type
45.46 QUAI across 1 visible row
0x00261a822E3f70A4F1c8C7e377d699eE97684ee6
Net receiver
Unknown type
45.46 QUAI across 1 visible row
Relationship intelligence
Repeated flow pairs
No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.
Type concentration
To exchange: 0 QUAI
From exchange: 0 QUAI
Whale to whale: 0 QUAI
Evidence checks
Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.
- Confirm whale rotation still matches latest flow.
- Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
- Review latest signal or spike before changing status.
Autonomous outcome
Read-only canonical source
Cyprus-1 spike
Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.
Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.
View investigationsNearby active minutes
Use these when the signal spills into adjacent minutes
Selected minute
8 tx
3,028.56 QUAI • 25 addresses
09/15/2026, 3:15:06 P.M.
-1 min
3 tx
1,355.17 QUAI • 23 addresses
09/15/2026, 3:13:54 P.M.
+1 min
2 tx
395.46 QUAI • 19 addresses
09/15/2026, 3:16:21 P.M.
-2 min
1 tx
57.56 QUAI • 14 addresses
09/15/2026, 3:12:41 P.M.
+3 min
Best candidate4 tx
10,275.4 QUAI • 19 addresses
09/15/2026, 3:17:36 P.M.
-4 min
0 tx
0 QUAI • 16 addresses
09/15/2026, 3:11:29 P.M.
+4 min
2 tx
195.37 QUAI • 15 addresses
09/15/2026, 3:18:47 P.M.
-5 min
1 tx
11.17 QUAI • 14 addresses
09/15/2026, 3:10:17 P.M.
Biggest whale alert
45.46 QUAI
Derived whale alertPrimary driver of this spikeAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/15/2026, 3:15:30 P.M.
QUAI transfer observed on Cyprus-1
Derived from the largest observable transfer in this minute because no persisted whale-alert row was found yet.
From: 0x00374FD6D10461B3D50a616173a3fE16eCd5B44c
To: 0x00261a822E3f70A4F1c8C7e377d699eE97684ee6
All transfers in this selected minute
1 transactions
45.46 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidence
Cyprus-1
09/15/2026, 3:15:30 P.M.
From: 0x00374FD6D10461B3D50a616173a3fE16eCd5B44c
To: 0x00261a822E3f70A4F1c8C7e377d699eE97684ee6
Tx: 0x00420072d76022e04b3355cd1aef04b4f23be27b4bf44bbe2c4d170df2ef153e