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Spike bucket

09/15/2026, 2:45:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 09/15/2026, 2:45:00 P.M. to 09/15/2026, 2:46:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

medium confidence

94% coverage

Whale-driven spike detected

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 1,300.9

Unexplained QUAI: 84.99

Facts

Pattern: Whale-driven spike

Dominant transfer: 89% of explained volume

Relative context

3.4x above local average

4.2x previous minute

22x next minute

Interpretation

Most of this spike is explained by one dominant transfer.

Visible rows account for most of the bucket with a clear leading transfer.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

85.7% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

1,385.88 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

high priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x003dCb1C71813EAf7E5590Efc597667fC5A8F693 • 0x007d6EFD51782aAaF15FE858bF9327358f8FB855.

Dominant behavior: whale rotation

whale_rotation + medium confidence + 1386 QUAI

Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.

Importance score: 53

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x003dCb1C71813EAf7E5590Efc597667fC5A8F693 • 0x007d6EFD51782aAaF15FE858bF9327358f8FB855.

0x004c09e90ED1221F4071b91Ebb4dd2bc1d597C0A -> 0x002a0AC96b01A542721BE67028014F51f48ca211 (3 repeated flows).

Confidence context: medium • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 6 visible transfer rows • 1 repeated counterpart flow

Confidence medium • Source account-shape-default

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Broad source coverage

Last updated: 09/15/2026, 2:45:00 P.M.

Coverage gaps appear limited

Based on: 1 related signal • 6 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Actor type hint is unknown with limited confidence; keep validation broad.

What to do next

Run a broad transfer-path check before actor-specific assumptions.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (whale rotation).
Re-check identity hints before narrowing the scope.
Identity hint: Insufficient reliable identity signals; classification kept conservative.

Top actors in this event

0x003dCb1C71813EAf7E5590Efc597667fC5A8F693

Net sender

Unknown type

1,154 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x007d6EFD51782aAaF15FE858bF9327358f8FB855

Net receiver

Unknown type

1,154 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00261a822E3f70A4F1c8C7e377d699eE97684ee6

Net receiver

Unknown type

143.9 QUAI across 2 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00374FD6D10461B3D50a616173a3fE16eCd5B44c

Net sender

Unknown type

81.05 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00790A8A273Fc05820818eFBADc78da09d591c7d

Net sender

Unknown type

62.85 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

0x004c09e90ED1221F4071b91Ebb4dd2bc1d597C0A → 0x002a0AC96b01A542721BE67028014F51f48ca211

3 repeated flows • 3 QUAI

Type concentration

To exchange: 0 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm whale rotation still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

View investigations

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-15 min -5 min -1 min +1 min +5 min +15 min Raw alerts API

6 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 7. The remaining 1 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.