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Spike bucket

09/15/2026, 2:08:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 09/15/2026, 2:08:00 P.M. to 09/15/2026, 2:09:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

medium confidence

79% coverage

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 381.06

Unexplained QUAI: 100

Facts

Pattern: Distributed activity

Dominant transfer: 35% of explained volume

Relative context

0.3x above local average

0.5x previous minute

0.8x next minute

Interpretation

This spike is partially explained by distributed visible activity.

The spike appears distributed, but some of the bucket still remains unexplained.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

75.0% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

481.06 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

medium priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x002D61B41fE3c140AcE8Ad51A4cca7fa48a3cBdE • 0x006432Ea8c46cBF981f6e710d2439C941CeBe2d0.

Dominant behavior: mixed flow

mixed_flow + medium confidence + 481 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 35

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x002D61B41fE3c140AcE8Ad51A4cca7fa48a3cBdE • 0x006432Ea8c46cBF981f6e710d2439C941CeBe2d0.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: medium • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 3 visible transfer rows

Confidence medium • Source account-shape-default

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Partial source coverage

Last updated: 09/15/2026, 2:08:00 P.M.

Coverage gap moderate (21% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 3 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Actor type hint is unknown with limited confidence; keep validation broad.

What to do next

Run a broad transfer-path check before actor-specific assumptions.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (mixed flow).
Re-check identity hints before narrowing the scope.
Identity hint: Insufficient reliable identity signals; classification kept conservative.

Top actors in this event

0x002D61B41fE3c140AcE8Ad51A4cca7fa48a3cBdE

Net sender

Unknown type

131.53 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x006432Ea8c46cBF981f6e710d2439C941CeBe2d0

Net receiver

Unknown type

131.53 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00752239b55ca5D2e722Fa2f5b4Dc76E9dF3db9E

Net sender

Unknown type

130.4 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00261a822E3f70A4F1c8C7e377d699eE97684ee6

Net receiver

Unknown type

130.4 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0062C7a3aC251EEA521F8e89AC6E4A74D34Ec051

Net sender

Unknown type

119.12 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 0 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm mixed flow still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

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3 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 4. The remaining 1 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.