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Spike bucket

09/15/2026, 12:05:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 09/15/2026, 12:05:00 P.M. to 09/15/2026, 12:06:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

medium confidence

68% coverage

Whale-driven spike detected

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 3,921.61

Unexplained QUAI: 1,870.67

Facts

Pattern: Whale-driven spike

Dominant transfer: 99% of explained volume

Relative context

5.1x above local average

7.4x previous minute

1.0x next minute

Interpretation

Most of this spike is explained by one dominant transfer.

A single transfer leads the visible activity, but some of the bucket remains unexplained.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

3.8% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

5,792.28 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

high priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x007e2F1a4709B812F339f22E18032118FBcc8987 • 0x003431E023Cb2352Fb10cb2F8e3AE14C56DFa317.

Dominant behavior: whale rotation

whale_rotation + medium confidence + 5792 QUAI

Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.

Importance score: 53

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x007e2F1a4709B812F339f22E18032118FBcc8987 • 0x003431E023Cb2352Fb10cb2F8e3AE14C56DFa317.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: medium • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 2 visible transfer rows

Confidence medium • Source account-shape-default

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Partial source coverage

Last updated: 09/15/2026, 12:05:00 P.M.

Coverage gap moderate (32% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 2 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).

What to do next

Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (whale rotation).
Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.

Top actors in this event

Gate.io hot wallet

Net sender

Exchange

3,891.73 QUAI across 1 visible row

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x003431E023Cb2352Fb10cb2F8e3AE14C56DFa317

Net receiver

Unknown type

3,891.73 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0062C7a3aC251EEA521F8e89AC6E4A74D34Ec051

Net sender

Unknown type

29.88 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x004a5F89bbf4625B783D643B0394148A80B6E877

Net receiver

Unknown type

29.88 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 0 QUAI

From exchange: 3,891.73 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm whale rotation still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

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2 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 52. The remaining 50 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.