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Spike bucket

09/15/2026, 3:05:00 A.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 09/15/2026, 3:05:00 A.M. to 09/15/2026, 3:06:00 A.M.

Partially observable spike

medium confidence

100% coverage

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 46,863.89

Unexplained QUAI: 0

Facts

Pattern: Mixed spike

Dominant transfer: 49% of explained volume

Relative context

2.8x above local average

2.6x previous minute

1.0x next minute

Interpretation

This spike is partially explained by multiple visible transfers.

No single transfer fully dominates the explained volume.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

45.5% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

32,188.4 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

high priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x002253613c1003545eB72768262705BdA71F3188 • 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a.

Dominant behavior: distribution

distribution + medium confidence + 32188 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 50

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x002253613c1003545eB72768262705BdA71F3188 • 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: medium • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 5 visible transfer rows

Confidence medium • Source account-shape-default

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Broad source coverage

Last updated: 09/15/2026, 3:05:00 A.M.

Coverage gaps appear limited

Based on: 1 related signal • 5 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Actor type hint is unknown with limited confidence; keep validation broad.

What to do next

Run a broad transfer-path check before actor-specific assumptions.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (distribution).
Re-check identity hints before narrowing the scope.
Identity hint: Insufficient reliable identity signals; classification kept conservative.

Top actors in this event

0x002253613c1003545eB72768262705BdA71F3188

Balanced

Unknown type

45,331.16 QUAI across 2 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

MEXC hot wallet

Net sender

Exchange

22,731.16 QUAI across 1 visible row

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x006C3e2AaAE5DB1bCd11A1a097cE572312EADdBB

Net receiver

Unknown type

22,600 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x004E24C5DD33FB5f4865e26F8BB891beF3347e4D

Net sender

Unknown type

1,035.81 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x001D6024eadCc759ec8d61E5411918E336A24519

Net receiver

Unknown type

1,035.81 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 0 QUAI

From exchange: 22,731.16 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm distribution still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

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5 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 11. The remaining 6 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.