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Spike bucket

09/14/2026, 3:22:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 09/14/2026, 3:22:00 P.M. to 09/14/2026, 3:23:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

low confidence

14% coverage

Large spike

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 65,253.51

Unexplained QUAI: 391,971.65

Explained QI: 268.48

Unexplained QI: 0

Facts

Pattern: Mixed spike

Dominant transfer: 35% of explained volume

Relative context

6.0x above local average

403x previous minute

6.2x next minute

Largest nearby bucket

Interpretation

This spike is partially explained by multiple visible transfers.

No single transfer fully dominates the explained volume.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

51.9% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

457,225.16 QUAI

268.48 QI

Avg confidence

64.1%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

high priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x002253613c1003545eB72768262705BdA71F3188 • 0x006C3e2AaAE5DB1bCd11A1a097cE572312EADdBB.

Dominant behavior: distribution

distribution + low confidence + 457225 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 48

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x002253613c1003545eB72768262705BdA71F3188 • 0x006C3e2AaAE5DB1bCd11A1a097cE572312EADdBB.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: low • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 14 visible transfer rows

Confidence low • Source account-shape-default

Limits: no repeated pair pattern yet • confidence remains low

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • Moderate freshness drift

Aging context • Thin source coverage

Last updated: 09/14/2026, 3:22:00 P.M.

Coverage gap high (86% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 14 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is aging; recent shifts may be under-reflected • source coverage is thin; unseen counterpart activity may be missing • observable coverage remains partial (14%)

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Actor type hint is unknown with limited confidence; keep validation broad.

What to do next

Run a broad transfer-path check before actor-specific assumptions.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (distribution).
Re-check identity hints before narrowing the scope.
Identity hint: Insufficient reliable identity signals; classification kept conservative.

Top actors in this event

0x002253613c1003545eB72768262705BdA71F3188

Balanced

Unknown type

45,887.04 QUAI across 2 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x006C3e2AaAE5DB1bCd11A1a097cE572312EADdBB

Net receiver

Unknown type

22,950 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

MEXC hot wallet

Net sender

Exchange

22,937.04 QUAI across 1 visible row

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Gate.io hot wallet

Net receiver

Exchange

19,366.47 QUAI across 11 visible rows

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00272A3B1850ce2E56DF955b2041FABfCAF3F117

Net sender

Unknown type

2,107.33 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 19,366.47 QUAI

From exchange: 22,937.04 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm distribution still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

View investigations

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14 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 27. The remaining 13 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.