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Spike bucket

09/14/2026, 1:19:00 A.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 09/14/2026, 1:19:00 A.M. to 09/14/2026, 1:20:00 A.M.

Partially observable spike

medium confidence

60% coverage

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 419.31

Unexplained QUAI: 276.39

Explained QI: 0

Unexplained QI: 1,182.71

Facts

Pattern: Mixed spike

Dominant transfer: 56% of explained volume

Relative context

0.3x above local average

1.9x next minute

Interpretation

This spike is partially explained by multiple visible transfers.

One transfer stands out, but supporting activity also contributes materially.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

28.6% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

695.7 QUAI

1,182.71 QI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

high priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x004b0015A5a719765d2CeBF08dE8cfb965593F17 • 0x0037F72D85cDF7527e64d9C19609976003540B90.

Dominant behavior: distribution

distribution + medium confidence + 696 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 45

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x004b0015A5a719765d2CeBF08dE8cfb965593F17 • 0x0037F72D85cDF7527e64d9C19609976003540B90.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: medium • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 2 visible transfer rows

Confidence medium • Source account-shape-default

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • Low freshness drift

Recent context • Partial source coverage

Last updated: 09/14/2026, 1:19:00 A.M.

Coverage gap moderate (40% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 2 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Confidence is moderate: useful context is present, but some recent or cross-source detail may be missing.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: transfer sample depth is limited in the current window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Actor type hint is unknown with limited confidence; keep validation broad.

What to do next

Run a broad transfer-path check before actor-specific assumptions.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (distribution).
Re-check identity hints before narrowing the scope.
Identity hint: Insufficient reliable identity signals; classification kept conservative.

Top actors in this event

0x004b0015A5a719765d2CeBF08dE8cfb965593F17

Net sender

Unknown type

419.31 QUAI across 2 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0037F72D85cDF7527e64d9C19609976003540B90

Net receiver

Unknown type

235.38 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x006f56Ac78e7274d88bD5dBBd382bb38f83427F0

Net receiver

Unknown type

183.92 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 0 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm distribution still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

View investigations

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2 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 7. The remaining 5 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.