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Spike bucket

09/13/2026, 3:24:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 09/13/2026, 3:24:00 P.M. to 09/13/2026, 3:25:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

low confidence

31% coverage

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 7,550.75

Unexplained QUAI: 16,446.94

Facts

Pattern: Distributed activity

Dominant transfer: 11% of explained volume

Relative context

0.5x above local average

0.1x previous minute

1.0x next minute

Interpretation

This spike is partially explained by distributed visible activity.

The spike appears distributed, but some of the bucket still remains unexplained.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

45.2% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

23,997.69 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

medium priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x007e2F1a4709B812F339f22E18032118FBcc8987 • 0x0018e45de2522b2806B9ac345ab81F4cDD8B7693.

Dominant behavior: mixed flow

mixed_flow + low confidence + 23998 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 27

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x007e2F1a4709B812F339f22E18032118FBcc8987 • 0x0018e45de2522b2806B9ac345ab81F4cDD8B7693.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: low • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 14 visible transfer rows

Confidence low • Source account-shape-default

Limits: no repeated pair pattern yet • confidence remains low

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • Moderate freshness drift

Aging context • Thin source coverage

Last updated: 09/13/2026, 3:24:00 P.M.

Coverage gap high (69% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 14 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is aging; recent shifts may be under-reflected • source coverage is thin; unseen counterpart activity may be missing • observable coverage remains partial (31%)

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).

What to do next

Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (mixed flow).
Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.

Top actors in this event

Gate.io hot wallet

Net receiver

Exchange

7,401.73 QUAI across 10 visible rows

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0018e45de2522b2806B9ac345ab81F4cDD8B7693

Net sender

Unknown type

839.36 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0024Ef44119C8130BB018D737dCaFe5608dbD681

Net sender

Unknown type

814.71 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0026C7eeBEb77B8856E53B4a0D2645FC6F953F24

Net sender

Unknown type

782.72 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00054a786531c76C6FEE8ea225EEA43aEc70643c

Net sender

Unknown type

781.13 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 7,401.73 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm mixed flow still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

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14 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 31. The remaining 17 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.