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Spike bucket

09/13/2026, 3:09:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 09/13/2026, 3:09:00 P.M. to 09/13/2026, 3:10:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

medium confidence

83% coverage

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 318.66

Unexplained QUAI: 66.31

Facts

Pattern: Distributed activity

Dominant transfer: 32% of explained volume

Relative context

0.1x above local average

0.9x previous minute

Interpretation

Visible rows explain most of the spike, with no single transfer dominating.

The spike appears distributed, but some of the bucket still remains unexplained.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

83.3% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

384.98 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

medium priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x00214D85387f7eDC63dD602F4Fd65A218DCa8cf5.

Dominant behavior: mixed flow

mixed_flow + medium confidence + 385 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 35

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x00214D85387f7eDC63dD602F4Fd65A218DCa8cf5.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: medium • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 5 visible transfer rows

Confidence medium • Source account-shape-default

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: watch • Moderate freshness drift

Aging context • Broad source coverage

Last updated: 09/13/2026, 3:09:00 P.M.

Coverage gaps appear limited

Based on: 1 related signal • 5 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Confidence is moderate: useful context is present, but some recent or cross-source detail may be missing.

Data reliability is mixed; validate conclusions with additional checks before strong decisions.

Limits: context is aging; recent shifts may be under-reflected • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).

What to do next

Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (mixed flow).
Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.

Top actors in this event

MEXC hot wallet

Net receiver

Exchange

301.23 QUAI across 3 visible rows

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00214D85387f7eDC63dD602F4Fd65A218DCa8cf5

Net sender

Unknown type

101.23 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x001D34B2650bb2D1716dd1eE877115375C540EbB

Net sender

Unknown type

100.33 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00307ce5b07B2776A657c069e17b9bB5a6b09B97

Net sender

Unknown type

99.68 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0012fE99c6dE55353F373e1276b27a19d8A0b907

Net receiver

Unknown type

17.43 QUAI across 2 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 301.23 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm mixed flow still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

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5 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 6. The remaining 1 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.