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Spike bucket

09/12/2026, 12:44:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 09/12/2026, 12:44:00 P.M. to 09/12/2026, 12:45:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

medium confidence

100% coverage

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 41,610.56

Unexplained QUAI: 0

Facts

Pattern: Mixed spike

Dominant transfer: 48% of explained volume

Relative context

2.9x above local average

0.6x next minute

Interpretation

This spike is partially explained by multiple visible transfers.

No single transfer fully dominates the explained volume.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

80.0% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

22,914.86 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

high priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x0011d16c5f4801D8d7B2eD4A84fC98D114Cb85b8.

Dominant behavior: distribution

distribution + medium confidence + 22915 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 45

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x0011d16c5f4801D8d7B2eD4A84fC98D114Cb85b8.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: medium • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 4 visible transfer rows

Confidence medium • Source account-shape-default

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Broad source coverage

Last updated: 09/12/2026, 12:44:00 P.M.

Coverage gaps appear limited

Based on: 1 related signal • 4 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).

What to do next

Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (distribution).
Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.

Top actors in this event

MEXC hot wallet

Balanced

Exchange

21,485.39 QUAI across 2 visible rows

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0011d16c5f4801D8d7B2eD4A84fC98D114Cb85b8

Net sender

Unknown type

19,999.16 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x002a08a5738c760Cca57A4b3F28Da7257982Ca49

Net receiver

Unknown type

19,999.16 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0040Fe2BDBb75B322BBF1E00D3Ec4548AF80a3Ab

Net sender

Unknown type

19,998.69 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x002a813475d4116D69CD81DD56e005663F485E49

Net receiver

Unknown type

1,486.7 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 19,998.69 QUAI

From exchange: 1,486.7 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm distribution still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

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4 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 5. The remaining 1 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.