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Spike bucket

09/11/2026, 10:02:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 09/11/2026, 10:02:00 P.M. to 09/11/2026, 10:03:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

low confidence

39% coverage

Whale-driven spike detected

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 21,093.97

Unexplained QUAI: 32,990.46

Facts

Pattern: Whale-driven spike

Dominant transfer: 95% of explained volume

Relative context

2.6x above local average

1.0x next minute

Interpretation

Most of this spike is explained by one dominant transfer.

A single transfer leads the visible activity, but some of the bucket remains unexplained.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

96.4% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

54,084.43 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

high priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x0040Fe2BDBb75B322BBF1E00D3Ec4548AF80a3Ab.

Dominant behavior: whale rotation

whale_rotation + low confidence + 54084 QUAI

Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.

Importance score: 50

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x0040Fe2BDBb75B322BBF1E00D3Ec4548AF80a3Ab.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: low • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 53 visible transfer rows

Confidence low • Source account-shape-default

Limits: no repeated pair pattern yet • confidence remains low

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Thin source coverage

Last updated: 09/11/2026, 10:02:00 P.M.

Coverage gap high (61% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 53 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • source coverage is thin; unseen counterpart activity may be missing • observable coverage remains partial (39%) • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).

What to do next

Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (whale rotation).
Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.

Top actors in this event

MEXC hot wallet

Net receiver

Exchange

20,241.6 QUAI across 3 visible rows

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0040Fe2BDBb75B322BBF1E00D3Ec4548AF80a3Ab

Net sender

Unknown type

19,998.58 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x006c515c33b7dd4f2A298626e3Bf931e05B480da

Net sender

Unknown type

852.37 QUAI across 50 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x004D8ac7BB11Ca88A8687C0f6cc522C3F3832Aa6

Net sender

Unknown type

137.94 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x001D34B2650bb2D1716dd1eE877115375C540EbB

Net receiver

Unknown type

112.53 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 20,241.6 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm whale rotation still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

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53 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 55. The remaining 2 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.