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Spike bucket

09/10/2026, 3:26:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 09/10/2026, 3:26:00 P.M. to 09/10/2026, 3:27:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

low confidence

54% coverage

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 7,418.5

Unexplained QUAI: 6,368.38

Facts

Pattern: Distributed activity

Dominant transfer: 7% of explained volume

Relative context

0.2x above local average

0.6x previous minute

1.0x next minute

Interpretation

This spike is partially explained by distributed visible activity.

The spike appears distributed, but some of the bucket still remains unexplained.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

57.1% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

13,786.89 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

medium priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x007e2F1a4709B812F339f22E18032118FBcc8987 • 0x001028dcdCB3AC9C09F392c790de8Aa31c12459b.

Dominant behavior: mixed flow

mixed_flow + low confidence + 13787 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 27

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x007e2F1a4709B812F339f22E18032118FBcc8987 • 0x001028dcdCB3AC9C09F392c790de8Aa31c12459b.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: low • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 16 visible transfer rows

Confidence low • Source account-shape-default

Limits: no repeated pair pattern yet • confidence remains low

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Partial source coverage

Last updated: 09/10/2026, 3:26:00 P.M.

Coverage gap moderate (46% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 16 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • observable coverage remains partial (54%) • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).

What to do next

Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (mixed flow).
Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.

Top actors in this event

Gate.io hot wallet

Net receiver

Exchange

7,418.5 QUAI across 16 visible rows

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x001028dcdCB3AC9C09F392c790de8Aa31c12459b

Net sender

Unknown type

515.22 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x003114C340E2750B7E50F1cEC4d29ADcB49e181c

Net sender

Unknown type

506.06 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x000C11662eE5319eFc008367C8C2BD47bFc81584

Net sender

Unknown type

491.88 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00228838f4165323A8b6fB12E1F1ACd2bE445c4A

Net sender

Unknown type

487.96 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 7,418.5 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm mixed flow still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

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16 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 28. The remaining 12 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.