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Spike bucket

08/17/2026, 3:24:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 08/17/2026, 3:24:00 P.M. to 08/17/2026, 3:25:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

low confidence

20% coverage

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 1,265.92

Unexplained QUAI: 4,916.08

Explained QI: 410.34

Unexplained QI: 0

Facts

Pattern: Mixed spike

Dominant transfer: 50% of explained volume

Relative context

0.1x above local average

0.0x previous minute

1.0x next minute

Interpretation

This spike is partially explained by multiple visible transfers.

One transfer stands out, but supporting activity also contributes materially.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

40.0% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

6,182 QUAI

410.34 QI

Avg confidence

77.0%

Dominant source: etx-type

Event intelligence

medium priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x007e2F1a4709B812F339f22E18032118FBcc8987 • 0x002773d48b4A834547e1339Aede3B9878b8F765D.

Dominant behavior: distribution

distribution + low confidence + 6182 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 37

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x007e2F1a4709B812F339f22E18032118FBcc8987 • 0x002773d48b4A834547e1339Aede3B9878b8F765D.

0x0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 -> 0x006ef231e9EDa08dFDAb9e3E964CD3e9e86684c2 (2 repeated flows).

Confidence context: low • Source context: etx-type

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 4 visible transfer rows • 1 repeated counterpart flow

Confidence low • Source etx-type

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • confidence remains low

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Thin source coverage

Last updated: 08/17/2026, 3:24:00 P.M.

Coverage gap high (80% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 4 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: etx-type • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • source coverage is thin; unseen counterpart activity may be missing • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • observable coverage remains partial (20%) • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).

What to do next

Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (distribution).
Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.

Top actors in this event

Gate.io hot wallet

Net receiver

Exchange

1,265.92 QUAI across 2 visible rows

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x002773d48b4A834547e1339Aede3B9878b8F765D

Net sender

Unknown type

635.67 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x004077c3AA1C17eFF24ae846B72c3D9C83927134

Net sender

Unknown type

630.24 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Net sender

Unknown type

410.34 QI across 2 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x006ef231e9EDa08dFDAb9e3E964CD3e9e86684c2

Net receiver

Unknown type

410.34 QI across 2 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

0x0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 → 0x006ef231e9EDa08dFDAb9e3E964CD3e9e86684c2

2 repeated flows • 410.34 QI

Type concentration

To exchange: 1,265.92 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm distribution still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

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-15 min -5 min -1 min +1 min +5 min +15 min Raw alerts API

4 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 10. The remaining 6 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.