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Spike bucket

08/17/2026, 3:22:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 08/17/2026, 3:22:00 P.M. to 08/17/2026, 3:23:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

low confidence

12% coverage

Large spike

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 30,478.87

Unexplained QUAI: 227,783.05

Explained QI: 383.81

Unexplained QI: 0

Facts

Pattern: Distributed activity

Dominant transfer: 9% of explained volume

Relative context

2.3x above local average

0.4x previous minute

8.5x next minute

Interpretation

This spike is partially explained by distributed visible activity.

The spike appears distributed, but some of the bucket still remains unexplained.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

70.8% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

258,261.92 QUAI

383.81 QI

Avg confidence

65.5%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

medium priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x007e2F1a4709B812F339f22E18032118FBcc8987 • 0x00201a9C0d87E0AB3e8e95D87b8c650AE1D3A4A5.

Dominant behavior: mixed flow

mixed_flow + low confidence + 258262 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 38

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x007e2F1a4709B812F339f22E18032118FBcc8987 • 0x00201a9C0d87E0AB3e8e95D87b8c650AE1D3A4A5.

0x0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 -> 0x006ef231e9EDa08dFDAb9e3E964CD3e9e86684c2 (2 repeated flows).

Confidence context: low • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 17 visible transfer rows • 1 repeated counterpart flow

Confidence low • Source account-shape-default

Limits: confidence remains low

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Thin source coverage

Last updated: 08/17/2026, 3:22:00 P.M.

Coverage gap high (88% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 17 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • source coverage is thin; unseen counterpart activity may be missing • observable coverage remains partial (12%) • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).

What to do next

Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (mixed flow).
Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.

Top actors in this event

Gate.io hot wallet

Net receiver

Exchange

30,478.87 QUAI across 15 visible rows

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00201a9C0d87E0AB3e8e95D87b8c650AE1D3A4A5

Net sender

Unknown type

2,705.38 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x007d6EFD51782aAaF15FE858bF9327358f8FB855

Net sender

Unknown type

2,582.33 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x001Ca6E57B29399995673dEa29ecCCa67FA006eB

Net sender

Unknown type

2,452.73 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0052d26C6706DA740b7F09DB43479142513a4B37

Net sender

Unknown type

2,452.3 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

0x0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 → 0x006ef231e9EDa08dFDAb9e3E964CD3e9e86684c2

2 repeated flows • 383.81 QI

Type concentration

To exchange: 30,478.87 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm mixed flow still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

View investigations

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17 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 24. The remaining 7 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.