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Spike bucket

08/17/2026, 12:08:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 08/17/2026, 12:08:00 P.M. to 08/17/2026, 12:09:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

medium confidence

100% coverage

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 668.3

Unexplained QUAI: 1.34

Explained QI: 0

Unexplained QI: 169.21

Facts

Pattern: Mixed spike

Dominant transfer: 67% of explained volume

Relative context

0.2x above local average

0.4x previous minute

1.0x next minute

Interpretation

This spike is partially explained by multiple visible transfers.

One transfer stands out, but supporting activity also contributes materially.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

66.7% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

669.63 QUAI

169.21 QI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

high priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x00153427831C607E490D6c1B064dF6a41AcA8566.

Dominant behavior: distribution

distribution + medium confidence + 670 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 45

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x00153427831C607E490D6c1B064dF6a41AcA8566.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: medium • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 4 visible transfer rows

Confidence medium • Source account-shape-default

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Broad source coverage

Last updated: 08/17/2026, 12:08:00 P.M.

Coverage gaps appear limited

Based on: 1 related signal • 4 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).

What to do next

Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (distribution).
Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.

Top actors in this event

MEXC hot wallet

Net receiver

Exchange

666.96 QUAI across 3 visible rows

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00153427831C607E490D6c1B064dF6a41AcA8566

Net sender

Unknown type

447.62 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x007f71E05a9e44077ED40d00F1f8AFF9C9013B05

Net sender

Unknown type

118.04 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x003273B2988Dd0Eb22Ef74b5AB28e6F4D1E14189

Net sender

Unknown type

101.29 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00206EA94ab4D72E1df29382Ed3F447F10674A61

Net sender

Unknown type

1.34 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 666.96 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm distribution still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

View investigations

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4 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 6. The remaining 2 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.