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Spike bucket

08/14/2026, 4:07:00 A.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 08/14/2026, 4:07:00 A.M. to 08/14/2026, 4:08:00 A.M.

Partially observable spike

medium confidence

77% coverage

Whale-driven spike detected

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 1,422.21

Unexplained QUAI: 426.76

Facts

Pattern: Whale-driven spike

Dominant transfer: 70% of explained volume

Relative context

2.1x above local average

1.8x previous minute

1.0x next minute

Interpretation

Most of this spike is explained by one dominant transfer.

A single transfer leads the visible activity, but some of the bucket remains unexplained.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

31.3% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

1,848.97 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

high priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x0038A76885c48e7DB846F9205b8bc1f82940ed2A.

Dominant behavior: whale rotation

whale_rotation + medium confidence + 1849 QUAI

Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.

Importance score: 53

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x0038A76885c48e7DB846F9205b8bc1f82940ed2A.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: medium • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 5 visible transfer rows

Confidence medium • Source account-shape-default

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Partial source coverage

Last updated: 08/14/2026, 4:07:00 A.M.

Coverage gap moderate (23% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 5 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).

What to do next

Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (whale rotation).
Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.

Top actors in this event

MEXC hot wallet

Net receiver

Exchange

1,422.21 QUAI across 5 visible rows

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0038A76885c48e7DB846F9205b8bc1f82940ed2A

Net sender

Unknown type

999.74 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x001D34B2650bb2D1716dd1eE877115375C540EbB

Net sender

Unknown type

116.13 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x000D7d3F319e6c2cD31535994133923271bD6c6f

Net sender

Unknown type

103.4 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00168639eAfC0f3BFA527e17917D8FCcaFfDb616

Net sender

Unknown type

101.59 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 1,422.21 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm whale rotation still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

View investigations

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5 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 16. The remaining 11 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.