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Spike bucket

07/21/2026, 3:28:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 07/21/2026, 3:28:00 P.M. to 07/21/2026, 3:29:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

medium confidence

64% coverage

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 4,583.56

Unexplained QUAI: 2,608.57

Facts

Pattern: Distributed activity

Dominant transfer: 8% of explained volume

Relative context

0.6x above local average

0.5x previous minute

1.6x next minute

Interpretation

This spike is partially explained by distributed visible activity.

The spike appears distributed, but some of the bucket still remains unexplained.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

77.8% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

7,192.13 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

medium priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x007e2F1a4709B812F339f22E18032118FBcc8987 • 0x000f5c2d2500087d3e26357402170042be0367f5.

Dominant behavior: mixed flow

mixed_flow + medium confidence + 7192 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 35

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x007e2F1a4709B812F339f22E18032118FBcc8987 • 0x000f5c2d2500087d3e26357402170042be0367f5.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: medium • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 14 visible transfer rows

Confidence medium • Source account-shape-default

Limits: no repeated pair pattern yet

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Partial source coverage

Last updated: 07/21/2026, 3:28:00 P.M.

Coverage gap moderate (36% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 14 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).

What to do next

Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (mixed flow).
Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.

Top actors in this event

Gate.io hot wallet

Net receiver

Exchange

4,583.56 QUAI across 14 visible rows

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x000f5c2d2500087d3e26357402170042be0367f5

Net sender

Unknown type

374.65 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00423DAA82a7620DD963d0030A4A555d6dc72dFD

Net sender

Unknown type

356.48 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x001D641e2A72B4624827A7Dea0A3C07d3c24153E

Net sender

Unknown type

346.16 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0029447632887D000fd3351d78e4CA679F1021A4

Net sender

Unknown type

338.24 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 4,583.56 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm mixed flow still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

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14 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 18. The remaining 4 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.