Spike bucket
07/21/2026, 12:17:00 A.M.
Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.
Window: 07/21/2026, 12:17:00 A.M. to 07/21/2026, 12:18:00 A.M.
Partially observable spike
low confidence
39% coverage
Coverage
Explained QUAI: 31,362.95
Unexplained QUAI: 49,848.39
Facts
Pattern: Mixed spike
Dominant transfer: 64% of explained volume
Relative context
1.4x above local average
0.7x previous minute
1.9x next minute
Interpretation
This spike is partially explained by multiple visible transfers.
One transfer stands out, but supporting activity also contributes materially.
Shard
Cyprus-1
Bucket tx
104
Observable rows
6
5.8% of bucket activity rendered as rows
Unique addresses
125
Asset volume
81,211.33 QUAI
Avg confidence
62.0%
Dominant source: account-shape-default
Event intelligence
medium priorityWhat happened
Top actor concentration: 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x0040Fe2BDBb75B322BBF1E00D3Ec4548AF80a3Ab.
Dominant behavior: distribution
distribution + low confidence + 81211 QUAI
This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.
Importance score: 42
Why this spike matters now
Top actor concentration around 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x0040Fe2BDBb75B322BBF1E00D3Ec4548AF80a3Ab.
No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.
Confidence context: low • Source context: account-shape-default
Evidence & confidence
Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available
Based on: 1 related signal • 6 visible transfer rows
Confidence low • Source account-shape-default
Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet • confidence remains low
Data provenance & freshness
Source health: limited • High freshness drift
Stale context window • Thin source coverage
Last updated: 07/21/2026, 12:17:00 A.M.
Coverage gap high (61% not covered)
Based on: 1 related signal • 6 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window
Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.
Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.
Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • source coverage is thin; unseen counterpart activity may be missing • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • observable coverage remains partial (39%) • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window
Why now
Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).
What to do next
Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.
What to verify
- Confirm behavior (distribution).
- Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
- Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.
Top actors in this event
MEXC hot wallet
Net receiver
Exchange
31,362.95 QUAI across 6 visible rows
Known watch context
0x0040Fe2BDBb75B322BBF1E00D3Ec4548AF80a3Ab
Net sender
Unknown type
19,998.81 QUAI across 1 visible row
0x004Cf58Bc9118c3B094dc138A059e40a5A6A36a3
Net sender
Unknown type
9,380.44 QUAI across 1 visible row
0x0019d56C6a7028799429a27A56C93b45Fe0D76Dd
Net sender
Unknown type
1,639.29 QUAI across 1 visible row
0x005325141fA6436671A1562F1bf0EDa748E498DF
Net sender
Unknown type
138.59 QUAI across 1 visible row
Relationship intelligence
Repeated flow pairs
No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.
Type concentration
To exchange: 31,362.95 QUAI
From exchange: 0 QUAI
Whale to whale: 0 QUAI
Evidence checks
Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.
- Confirm distribution still matches latest flow.
- Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
- Review latest signal or spike before changing status.
Autonomous outcome
Read-only canonical source
Cyprus-1 spike
This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.
Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.
View investigationsNearby active minutes
Use these when the signal spills into adjacent minutes
Selected minute
Best candidate15 tx
156,368.3 QUAI • 41 addresses
07/21/2026, 12:16:36 A.M.
Selected minute
104 tx
81,211.33 QUAI • 125 addresses
07/21/2026, 12:17:26 A.M.
-1 min
27 tx
114,241.03 QUAI • 54 addresses
07/21/2026, 12:15:35 A.M.
+1 min
7 tx
43,767.92 QUAI • 18 addresses
07/21/2026, 12:18:25 A.M.
+2 min
0 tx
0 QUAI • 12 addresses
07/21/2026, 12:19:25 A.M.
-3 min
121 tx
79,791.42 QUAI • 153 addresses
07/21/2026, 12:13:56 A.M.
+3 min
1 tx
56.38 QUAI • 15 addresses
07/21/2026, 12:20:25 A.M.
+4 min
0 tx
0 QUAI • 10 addresses
07/21/2026, 12:21:24 A.M.
Biggest whale alert
19,998.81 QUAI
Whale alertAccount Shape Default62.0% confidenceInflow to whale
Cyprus-1
07/21/2026, 12:17:45 A.M.
QUAI whale transfer detected on Cyprus-1
From: 0x0040Fe2BDBb75B322BBF1E00D3Ec4548AF80a3Ab
To: MEXC hot wallet
0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a
Exchange
All transfers in this selected minute
6 transactions
1,639.29 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidenceInflow to whale
Cyprus-1
07/21/2026, 12:17:45 A.M.
From: 0x0019d56C6a7028799429a27A56C93b45Fe0D76Dd
To: MEXC hot wallet
0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a
Exchange
Tx: 0x003f001660ed1e8d7bab423aedf684aea498fc0b7a7787a0e80d10a0f704a8d5
9,380.44 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidenceInflow to whale
Cyprus-1
07/21/2026, 12:17:45 A.M.
From: 0x004Cf58Bc9118c3B094dc138A059e40a5A6A36a3
To: MEXC hot wallet
0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a
Exchange
Tx: 0x006d0011e68feeeaa260a26ebb6c632450cc02b21efe08bf6aa83de628a1e033
138.59 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidenceInflow to whale
Cyprus-1
07/21/2026, 12:17:45 A.M.
From: 0x005325141fA6436671A1562F1bf0EDa748E498DF
To: MEXC hot wallet
0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a
Exchange
Tx: 0x0008002eba3a1637f259f7ba26a0409de510ed385d11d3561af14fbff20fb5a9
19,998.81 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidenceInflow to whale
Cyprus-1
07/21/2026, 12:17:45 A.M.
From: 0x0040Fe2BDBb75B322BBF1E00D3Ec4548AF80a3Ab
To: MEXC hot wallet
0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a
Exchange
Tx: 0x00660030387783009154e3ed3fb4f3cc73b51edaae218f6cdf9c75733bd9a78c
101.58 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidenceInflow to whale
Cyprus-1
07/21/2026, 12:17:45 A.M.
From: 0x00207ff1171b4889763af8cc79472d0dA9907FC9
To: MEXC hot wallet
0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a
Exchange
Tx: 0x000d0029dcc506b02ffe04404e61b94b6c556a7cebcb0a3f0626c6114513af51
104.22 QUAI
Observed transferAccount Shape Default62.0% confidenceInflow to whale
Cyprus-1
07/21/2026, 12:17:45 A.M.
From: 0x00155b6eA28CFE8DB1374c39e0ec92c57d03eF25
To: MEXC hot wallet
0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a
Exchange
Tx: 0x002b00614c018cdf6e3599e31b265d09bc1060c8f9cc55ba63809205b77a02ca