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Spike bucket

07/20/2026, 3:15:00 A.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 07/20/2026, 3:15:00 A.M. to 07/20/2026, 3:16:00 A.M.

Partially observable spike

medium confidence

100% coverage

Whale-driven spike detected

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 21,434.86

Unexplained QUAI: 0

Facts

Pattern: Whale-driven spike

Dominant transfer: 93% of explained volume

Relative context

1.8x above local average

0.9x previous minute

1.0x next minute

Interpretation

Most of this spike is explained by one dominant transfer.

Visible rows account for most of the bucket with a clear leading transfer.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

16.1% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

21,189.02 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

high priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x0040Fe2BDBb75B322BBF1E00D3Ec4548AF80a3Ab.

Dominant behavior: whale rotation

whale_rotation + medium confidence + 21189 QUAI

Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.

Importance score: 53

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x0040Fe2BDBb75B322BBF1E00D3Ec4548AF80a3Ab.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: medium • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 5 visible transfer rows

Confidence medium • Source account-shape-default

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Broad source coverage

Last updated: 07/20/2026, 3:15:00 A.M.

Coverage gaps appear limited

Based on: 1 related signal • 5 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).

What to do next

Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (whale rotation).
Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.

Top actors in this event

MEXC hot wallet

Net receiver

Exchange

21,434.86 QUAI across 5 visible rows

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0040Fe2BDBb75B322BBF1E00D3Ec4548AF80a3Ab

Net sender

Unknown type

19,998.81 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0067C2DCa158f94a8950cd6bB30B6Bd950F8Ad88

Net sender

Unknown type

1,117.74 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0072DF620c41F7aBD07F7fceC52feb044e3D4d62

Net sender

Unknown type

108.21 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0045f0A51D2cFC3B573a7DCc2C14AD3C47C3f58e

Net sender

Unknown type

107.55 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 21,434.86 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm whale rotation still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

View investigations

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5 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 31. The remaining 26 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.