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Spike bucket

07/19/2026, 2:23:00 A.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 07/19/2026, 2:23:00 A.M. to 07/19/2026, 2:24:00 A.M.

Partially observable spike

medium confidence

98% coverage

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 38,641.31

Unexplained QUAI: 820.66

Facts

Pattern: Distributed activity

Dominant transfer: 22% of explained volume

Relative context

1.5x above local average

3.4x previous minute

1.0x next minute

Interpretation

Visible rows explain most of the spike, with no single transfer dominating.

The spike appears distributed, but some of the bucket still remains unexplained.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

90.9% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

39,461.97 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

medium priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x002378Ed986d936D488B5DD92517Dc3F4966E07F.

Dominant behavior: mixed flow

mixed_flow + medium confidence + 39462 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 40

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x002378Ed986d936D488B5DD92517Dc3F4966E07F.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: medium • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 40 visible transfer rows

Confidence medium • Source account-shape-default

Limits: no repeated pair pattern yet

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Broad source coverage

Last updated: 07/19/2026, 2:23:00 A.M.

Coverage gaps appear limited

Based on: 1 related signal • 40 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).

What to do next

Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (mixed flow).
Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.

Top actors in this event

MEXC hot wallet

Net receiver

Exchange

32,063.87 QUAI across 34 visible rows

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x002378Ed986d936D488B5DD92517Dc3F4966E07F

Net sender

Unknown type

8,313.34 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0033A4774088d0389D6068d4de12DCB0a7103752

Net sender

Unknown type

5,131.67 QUAI across 3 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x002f0191A05cFE6F4B7428aC5F1F157e8A7f8508

Net sender

Unknown type

4,541.98 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0043f6a0860c43D4fC91706A411d81a5fed7412c

Net receiver

Unknown type

3,525.14 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 32,063.87 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm mixed flow still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

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40 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 44. The remaining 4 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.